>The theory of program-survival bias is much more plausible than it already is when the pivotal trial for a drug is the first double-blind, randomized trial.<
I respectfully disagree.
Program-survival bias — as opposed to the various other biases in phase-2 trials — would pertain even if phase-3 studies were exact clones of the phase-2 studies in trial design and size.
The only requirement for program-survival bias to apply is that the metric responsible for advancing a program from phase-2 to phase-3 have an underlying probability distribution with a non-zero variance.
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