Syl, I think the NDX may next double top at 1864, back-test 1832, then test 1864 again.
There are now 3-gaps on the daily NDX. Typically when this happens, the last one fills. That would be today's gap.
There was an exception on the COMP in April-May 2001, and I think this move may end up resembling that one. In that instance all the gaps filled by fall 2001, and the NDX made lower lows.
The NDX in May 2001 looked like a cup/handle or inverse H&S pattern off the lows to the highs in May. However, that high in May was the high water mark for the NDX until summer 2007.
It was so much easier to tag highs in 2001 and 2002. All you had to do was watch for a string of days where the equity put/call was below 0.50 or the total put/call was under 0.60.
That's not the case anymore.
The SPX has falling resistance that will likely be tested at 1378. If that holds, price may drop back and test the 1350 area. If that holds, the 1388 and 1396 areas would be the next tests. If we surpass 1378 this week, there is a rising resistance line at about 1385 that may be the targets.
The volume on today's rise was nothing spectacular. The breadth was decent, but with nearly 90% up volume on all the major indices, the advancing issues were on 72% on the Nasdaq, although they were 82% on the NYA.
I guess what I'm looking for is a consolidation in a range from 1350-1396 SPX leading to a final ascent to maybe 1420 SPX around the time of the Fed meeting. I think the NDX could reach 1960-1980 in that same time frame, with 1825 possibly a floor going into that time.
I think after the Fed we may have a slow, agonizing drain like May-August 2001. We'll see.
AI
