Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

HCV: Most Likely to Succeed (IMHO)

[Updated for results reported at EASL. I’ve
moved ITMN-191 up two notches; the new
position is just one notch below Telaprevir.]


The following paragraphs are in descending order of likelihood of success. (Paragraphs 6 and 8 are “catchall” groupings that do not explicitly mention all of the applicable drug candidates within the grouping.)

1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ; phase-3): #msg-26228377.

2. ITMN-191/R7227 (ITMN/Roche; phase 1b): #msg-28091523; and Boceprevir (SGP; phase-2): #msg-23788779.

3. Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants: #msg-26612906.

4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ; entering phase-2): #msg-24754963; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b): #msg-25785397; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2): #msg-24230355.

5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (HGSI/NVS; dose reduced in phase-3): #msg-26199740; IFN-alpha-XL (FLML; phase-1): #msg-24008801; and IFN-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which has been on life support since Roche dropped the program: #msg-24801678.

6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA; e.g. IDX184 from IDIX: #msg-25802238, #msg-25836105.

7. GS9190 (GILD; phase-1), which has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.

8. Miscellaneous early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s; e.g. Sirna-034, now owned by MRK: #msg-12665661.

9. HCV-796 (VPHM/WYE), which is probably dead due to liver toxicity: #msg-21978725.

JMHO, FWIW