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Market Update 080325
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:25 pm : The stock market took a blow Tuesday from a batch of weak economic news, yet it managed to lift itself up off the mat and finish the day in positive territory. Granted the S&P 500 tacked on just 3 points, or 0.2%, but that is still a noteworthy performance given the scope of recent gains that left it vulnerable to selling efforts following the weak economic reports.

Specifically, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for March hit a 5-year low at 64.5 and checked in well below the market's expectation for a reading of 73.5. Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which measures prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, declined 10.7% versus the year-ago period, the largest drop on record since the measurement began in 2001.

The major indices hit their lows for the session shortly after the confidence report at 10:00 ET, but even then, selling efforts lacked conviction. The S&P 500, which had gained 7.4% from its low last Monday entering today's session, dipped just 0.6% at its worst point.

A Merrill Lynch downgrade of several banking stocks, including Bank of America (BAC 40.97, -1.48), contributed to the early selling pressure. However, a positive earnings pre-announcement from agriculture products company Monsanto (MON 114.54, +10.28) and relative strength in the basic materials sector helped keep selling efforts in check.

The lack of follow-through selling fostered a rebound trade that was fairly broad-based. Strikingly, the consumer discretionary sector, an obvious target following the weak consumer confidence report, took a leadership role in the recovery effort. The sector ended the day with a loss of 0.3%, but it had been down as much as 1.2%. Similarly, the S&P Retailing Index managed to cut a 2.0% loss in half by the closing bell.

Overall, today's market activity could be characterized as mixed. Held back by Bank of America and IBM (IBM 117.97, -1.09), the Dow closed the session with a slight loss while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 recorded modest gains.

Large-cap technology shares were the difference maker for the Nasdaq, which outdistanced the other major indices with a 0.6% gain. It was the S&P 400 Midcap Index, though, that led all comers with a gain of 1.0%. It is worth noting, too, that the Dow Jones Transportation Average, often viewed as a leading indicator, continued its outperformance, tacking on 0.8% to leave it up 7.2% for the year.

The weak data mentioned above appeared to weigh on the dollar index, which slipped 1.0%, and contributed to a day of gains for the Treasury market with the back end of the yield curve leading the way. The dollar's weakness put a bid back in the commodity market as evidenced by the 1.6% gain in the CRB Index.DJ30 -16.04 NASDAQ +14.30 SP500 +3.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1109/1852/2.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1101/2066/1.48 bln

3:35 pm : The stock market is trying to hold onto its modest gains heading into the final half-hour of trading. A positive finish would mark the third straight gain for the stock market.

Tomorrow, the market will be digesting the durable orders and new home sales economic reports. In addition, the Department of Energy will be reporting the weekly energy inventories numbers.
DJ30 +10.99 NASDAQ +19.57 SP500 +6.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1141/1764/1.74 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1070/2077/1.15 bln

3:00 pm : The major indices are climbing back toward their session highs. Only telecom (-0.6%) remains in the red, due to weakness in Verizon (VZ 36.66, -0.31) and Sprint-Nextel (S 6.33, -0.25).

The energy sector is outperforming, even as Exxon Mobil (XOM 85.36, -0.59)--which has the largest market cap--trades in the red. Most of the refineries (-3.8%) are trading lower on Valero's (VLO 48.26, -1.82) lowered earnings outlook. Their weakness is being offset by strength in the oil & gas exploration (+2.9%) and oil & gas equipment (+2.8%) groups.DJ30 +14.17 NASDAQ +18.10 SP500 +6.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1127/1764/1.56 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1072/2068/1.03 bln

2:30 pm : Stocks take a dip off their best levels. Market breadth remains positive. Advancers outpace decliners by 2-to-1 on the NYSE and by 3-to-2 on the Nasdaq.

The best performing S&P 500 stocks are Monsanto (MON 114.99, +10.73) and Apple (AAPL 142.04, +2.51). Monsanto is up 18.3% this week, and Apple is up 7.0%. Bank of America (BAC 41.16, -1.29) and Exxon Mobil (XOM 85.12, -0.83) are the worst performing stocks.DJ30 -7.57 NASDAQ +13.13 SP500 +4.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1142/1708/1.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1119/2007/934 mln

2:00 pm : As news slows down, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit fresh session highs. Gains remain modest, but are more substantial when considering the S&P 500 was down as much as 0.6%.

The financial sector (+0.7%) is playing a large role in the turnaround, as it went from being a laggard to outperforming the broader market. Financials were down 1.9% at this session's lows.DJ30 +12.86 NASDAQ +16.48 SP500 +6.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1115/1723/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1096/2017/864 mln

1:30 pm : The major indices are trading in mixed fashion, with the Dow posting a slight loss. Gold is now up 1.7% to $934.20 per ounce, as the Dollar Index (-0.98%) trades nearly a full percentage point lower. Gold is down 10.6% from its all-time high reached last week Monday.DJ30 -14.82 NASDAQ +7.78 SP500 +3.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1215/1592/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1231/1882/784 mln

1:00 pm : The stock market is trading modestly below its best level of the session. Seven of the ten sectors are posting a gain. Telecom (-0.3%) has seen a notable lift off its worst level, when it was down 2.0%.

Meanwhile financials (flat) are trading at their best levels. Strength in Chicago Mercantile Exchange operator CME Group (CME 500.11, +12.11) is providing a healthy boost to the sector.

European markets ended their day with strong gains. France's CAC 40 was up 3.7%, and London's FTSE gained 3.2%.DJ30 -25.48 NASDAQ +6.18 SP500 +1.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1209/1584/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1210/1890/720 mln

12:30 pm : Stocks catch a modest bid, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trading in the green. Independent energy company Devon Energy (DVN 102.67, +3.51) is posting a healthy 3.5% gain, which is helping to lift the energy sector (+0.9%).

Financials (-0.4%) continue to trail the broader market, but have come off their worst levels.DJ30 -24.58 NASDAQ +6.65 SP500 +2.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1235/1532/992 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1279/1793/663 mln

12:05 pm : The stock market is trading slightly lower at midday. This is actually not too bad, considering news has been mostly bearish this session and the market was up 7.4% since hitting its 52-week low on March 17.

Economic news was poor. The S&P Case Shiller home price index showed a year-over-year decline of 10.7%, slightly more than the expected 10.5% decline. This marks the largest drop in the 20-year history of the report.

The Conference Board said March consumer confidence fell to 64.5 from 75.0, which is the lowest reading since 2003. Economists called for a smaller drop to 74.3. Confidence has dropped seven of the last eight months, and is down 42% since last July.

Corporate news has been somewhat slow. Yahoo! (YHOO 28.32, +0.80) is posting a healthy gain after being upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. Citi believes that a Microsoft (MSFT 29.08, -0.09) offer to acquire Yahoo will eventually be accepted. Strength in Yahoo is helping the Nasdaq outperform on a relative basis.

The fertilizer & agriculture chemical group (+8.6%) is providing leadership for the second straight day. Monsanto (MON 113.29, +9.03) raised its full year 2008 earnings estimate between $3.15 and $3.25 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.87. In turn, materials (+2.5%) is the best performing sector.

Financials (-1.2%) are weak this session. JPMorgan Chase lowered its earnings estimates on Merrill Lynch (MER 47.32, -1.06). Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch downgraded Bank of America (BAC 40.85, -1.60) to Sell from Neutral.

Interestingly, the energy sector (+0.6%) is outperforming the broader market even though refiner Valero (VLO 49.33, -0.75) announced it expects first quarter earnings between $0.10 to $0.35 per share, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.91. The company cited low margins, known as “crack spreads” in the industry. Crude is down 0.4% to $100.49 per barrel.

In currency trading, the dollar is down a steep 0.9% after regaining some ground the last few sessions. This is fueling buying interest in commodities (+1.0%), with gold up 1.2%.DJ30 -61.55 NASDAQ -0.84 SP500 -2.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1369/1386/886 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1452/1614/591 mln

11:35 am : The major indices come off their worst levels, with the Nasdaq making it back into the green. Yahoo! (YHOO 28.41, +0.89) is playing a role in the Nasdaq's relative strength. The company was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. Although Yahoo! had rejected Microsoft's (MSFT 29.16, -0.01) previous offer, Citi believes it is likely that Yahoo! will eventually be taken over by Microsoft.DJ30 -44.40 NASDAQ +4.26 SP500 -0.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1261/1449/752 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1367/1644/499 mln

11:00 am : The major indices are trading in choppy fashion in negative territory. The DJ World Ex US Index (+3.2%) is faring much better than the U.S. stock market. Many overseas markets were closed yesterday, so some of their gains are "catching up" to the S&P 500's solid advance yesterday.

The fertilizer & agriculture group is off its best level, but continues to post a strong 8.1% gain. The group is up 17.0% this week, and up 107% compared to a year ago.DJ30 -74.12 NASDAQ -1.28 SP500 -3.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1284/1394/621 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1409/1568/408 mln

10:30 am : Selling pressure eases as the major indices trade with modest losses. Five of the ten economic sectors are posting a gain, led by materials (+2.6%). Telecom (-1.6%) and financials (-1.2%) are the worst performing sectors.

Crude oil went on retreat in conjunction with the release of the lowest consumer confidence reading since 2003. Oil has slipped below the $100 mark, as it trades down 1.0% $99.88.DJ30 -74.16 NASDAQ -6.20 SP500 -5.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1319/1264/459 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1437/1478/303 mln

10:05 am : Stocks fall on a worse than expected economic release, and are now trading with decent sized losses. Just reported, March consumer confidence fell to 64.5, from the prior reading of 75.0. This fell short of the expected reading of 73.5.

The materials sector (+2.4%) is leading the way for the second straight session due to strength within the fertilizer & agriculture chemicals group (+11.2%). Agriculture chemicals company Monsanto (MON 115.50, +11.24) raised its full year 2008 earnings estimate to between $3.15 and $3.25 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.87. DJ30 -73.27 NASDAQ -10.26 SP500 -7.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1202/1242/250 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1253/1537/168 mln

09:40 am : After an uninspired opening the major indices are trading near the unchanged mark. In economic news, the S&P CaseShiller home price index fell 10.7% year-over-year, marking its largest drop ever.

Treasuries have recovered some of yesterday's steep losses. Meanwhile, gold is up 1.3% after falling more than 10% from its recently reached all-time high.DJ30 -8.07 NASDAQ +1.37 SP500 +1.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1210/989/74 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1260/64 mln

09:16 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.2.

09:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Futures slide, and now suggest a slightly lower open. The January S&P Case Shiller home price index showed a year-over-year decline of 10.7%, compared to the expected decline of 10.5%. This marks the largest drop in the history of this report. Agriculture chemicals company Monsanto (MON) raised its full year 2008 earnings estimate to $3.15 to $3.25 per share, compared to the consensus estimate of $2.87.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.8. Early indications point to a higher open. Gold is rebounding, as it is up 1.5% to $932.60 per ounce. Crude oil dipped below the $100 mark in earlier trade, but has since recovered a bit and is now up 0.5% to $101.29 per barrel

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures suggest a modestly higher start to trading. Overseas markets are seeing sharp gains. The major European bourses are posting gains of more than 3%. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.1%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 6.4%. Yahoo! (YHOO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. JPMorgan reduced its earnings estimates on Merrill Lynch (MER), according to CNBC.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0.

06:18 am : FTSE...5672.50...+177.30...+3.2%. DAX...6507.69...+187.70...+3.0%.

06:18 am : Nikkei...12745.22...+265.13...+2.1%. Hang Seng...22464.52...+1356.30...+6.4%.