Today's BSTE News is an upgrade..
) 06:36 am ET Wachovia Securities
(BSTE) Upgraded to Outperform THE UPGRADE: We now forecast that BSTE is poised to beat Street estimates for Q104 and beyond given an apparent weaker than expected Abbott BNP launch, continued torrid market growth and Biosite's own solid execution. Our upgrade reflects those positives and BSTE`s modest valuation. - EXPECT Q104 UPSIDE: Our field checks indicate 15-20% sequential BNP volume growth for Biosite`s BNP test in U.S. hospitals and stable pricing for Q104. We expect EPS at or above our $0.42 estimate, ahead of consensus ($0.39). - MODEST IMPACT FROM ABBOTT LAUNCH: The less than expected impact is due to 1) test accuracy issues and 2) higher calibration and quality control costs. With pricing in the low-teens, ABT has a cost advantage over Biosite`s near $20 BNP test only in accounts with volume over 181 tests per month. We expect these limitations on ABT`s BNP test to carry forward. - INCREASING 2004 and 2005 EPS: We are increasing 2004 and 2005 EPS to $1.80 and $2.00, each ahead of consensus. Based on ABT`s launch, we are now modeling firmer BNP pricing (though still falling) and better Biosite volume growth (28% and 12% for U.S. hospitals in 2004 and 2005).