Your Economy (No Politics)

[Rextar]

Astro/cycle 50 week low.

MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK
BEGINNING APRIL 5, 2004

Stock markets throughout the world continued their strong up thrust following their probable 50-week cycle troughs of the prior week, as anticipated in this column.



In Europe, the German DAX market ended the week on its high at 4008, following its prior week’s low on Wednesday, March 24, at 3692.40. The London FTSE index ended the week at 4465.60, slightly off the high of the week of 4471.30, also formed on Friday. This is up from the low of 4191.30 on Wednesday, March 24. In the Netherlands, the AEX closed at 350.52 after having plummeted to 323.40 on Wednesday, March 24. And the Swiss stock index, after bottoming at 5437.50 on Monday, March 22, rallied strongly all last week, closing at 5784.60. As stated in last week’s column, “Still, the 50-week cycle low is in either in, or very close at hand in all the European markets. The technicals have not yet confirmed the low, but they won’t until the market is well off those lows.” Last week’s impressive performance strongly suggests that the new cycle has begun. And, as we know from our understanding of cycles, the first phase of any cycle is bullish.



In the Far East, the Japanese Nikkei continued to rally to its highest level in 2 years. It reached 11,869 last Tuesday, and closed the week at 11,816. The Australian All Ordinaries continues to challenge its all-time high of 3448.50 of March 18, as it got as high as 3445 on Friday, before settling back to close at 3437.40. Even the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong rallied last week. It closed the week at 12,732, up smartly from its low of 12,400 on Monday, March 29. The Hang Seng has been the weakest of all markets we track recently.



The U.S. stock markets performed well last week. Following Friday’s positive employment report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continued its rally to 10,496.40, after bottoming at 10,007.50 on Wednesday, March 24. It closed the week near those highs, at 10,470.60. As stated last week, “This low satisfies many criteria for the 50-week bottom and "Pre-Presidential Election Year" trough we have been discussing as due by the end of May at the latest and ideally by the end of March. A close above the 25-day moving average would be a stronger confirmation signal, but that is up to 10,388.” We have now closed above that moving average, as the DJIA is now approaching its yearly high of 10,753 recorded back on February 19. The NASDAQ Composite closed right on its high of the week at 2057.20, after posting a multi-week low at 1896.90 on Wednesday, March 24. As stated last week, “This is still far off from its yearly high of 2153.80 of January 26. But, like the DJIA, it looks positive right now, suggesting that the long-term cycle trough is probably in, and the next 50-week cycle has begun.”



Almost all of the recent lows formed on March 24, which was right in that time frame of the recent cluster of Level 1 geocosmic signatures of March 24-28. This was therefore an excellent example of how geocosmic signatures can aid us in forecasting critical reversals in world stock indices. In this case it was very useful, because it pinpointed not just a 4% or greater reversal, but the end of the a long-term 50-week cycle. Those types of cycles are very useful, because they provide the best buying opportunities of the year. The ability to pick the best buying or selling opportunities of the year is extremely valuable to traders and investors alike, because they obviously don’t happen that often – only once a year!



The importance of the recent lows is also important for the purpose of political forecasting. That low of March 22-29 was not only a 50-week cycle culmination, but in the United States, it also represents the “Pre-Presidential Election Year” trough cycle. As discussed before, this cycle low usually occurs between October-May, and usually October-March, preceding the U.S.A. presidential election. Once it is completed, we then have the parameters that let us know which party is likely to win the forthcoming election. Basically, for the party in office to win the election (Republicans and George W. Bush), the U.S. stock market needs to be more bullish than bearish between now and the election. For the Democrats and John Kerry to win, the U.S. stock market needs to be more bearish than bullish during this same time frame. Specifically, for George Bush to lose, the market would have to do two things: First, it have to fail to make a new high between now and the election (fail to get above 10,753 in the DJIA). Second, after this rally ends, it will then have to make a lower low than the 50-week cycle just realized last week at 10,007.50. If both of those things happen (lower high, lower low) before the election, then George Bush’s chances of being re-elected are very slim, according to historical correspondences in the past. On the other hand, it the market makes a new high, and also does not make a lower low than last week, then his chances of re-election are extremely high. As readers know, I do expect the market to make a new high in the next few months, and even weeks. However, I then expect it to make a new low. But what I am uncertain of, is whether the new low will occur before or after the election.



For this coming week, we have another geocosmic cluster forming April 6-14. On Tuesday, April 6, Mercury will begin its retrograde motion through April 30, and Mars will square Jupiter. Mercury Retrograde is a Level 2 type of signature. That means it is a fairly strong correlation to cycles, but not as strong as the Mars-Uranus and Sun-Saturn signatures of March 24-28. So, it would imply that a pause, or a correction to the new trend might start from around then. But perhaps more importantly is the psychological correlation that takes place when Mercury is retrograde. It is a very unpredictable time in terms of market behavior. Support and resistance areas tend to be unreliable, as prices break through these areas temporarily, and then fail to continue in that direction (a “failed breakout”). Or, prices fail to even reach those areas expected, and then begin to seesaw back and forth in short amounts of time. Typically it is a very frustrating trading climate for traders and investors alike. Regardless of what methods one uses to analyze markets (fundamental, technical, cyclical, and even other geocosmics), it is usually a confusing period. It is a good time to take a vacation, or break from the markets. Or, if you must be in, then our motto is to “take profits too soon.” That means, take profits quickly, and don’t wait around for the market to realize your time or price objectives.



The Mars-Jupiter square suggests aggressive (Mars) exaggeration (Jupiter) that leads to offensiveness. It is a signature of bravado, but exaggerated claims that cannot be backed up. It would be wise for world leaders and political opponents to be very careful of what they say this week. Since Jupiter rules Sagittarius, and John Kerry is a Sagittarius, it might be wise for him (and all Sagittarians and Arians) to think carefully before saying what is on his mind. This can be a “foot in the mouth” problem. In terms of world stock markets, it can be a tendency to be over-euphoric, or “irrationally exuberant.”



Next week’s report may not be ready to Sunday, April 11, due to duties at the Swiss World Congress. For our European readership, if you be interested in a one-day workshop on Financial Astrology --it will be given at this Swiss World Congress in Basel, Switzerland, on Friday, April 9. For further information, please go to www.astrodata.ch, or call 41-(0) 43-343 33 33.


Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.


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