K ... about the price of crude-- I've got both the daily and the weekly charts giving me negative signals ... I certainly wouldn't be buying the dip here.
WTIC -- Daily
WTIC -- Weekly
The PoG on the other hand looks bad from the daily chart but it's still bullish from a weekly, although the risk of losing is getting quite high.
Gold -- Daily
Gold -- Weekly
...and I agree with the massive speculation in the oil markets-- the Americans and their SPR (and hording from China) has given the nice folks out there in traderland the impression of an easy trade ( see #msg-2689340 )
...but methinks the bull market will reassert itself (as it always does) in the near future.
Here's some EIA oil statistics for world demand/supply.
Forecasted for 2004:
demand -- 80.5 million barrels per day supply -- 80.8 million barrels per day
Forecasted for 2005:
demand -- 82.2 million barrels per day supply -- 81.9 million barrels per day