MarOE Stuff?
NEW 52 wk intraday Low, 41.38 and a new 52 wk Closing low, 42.07, WooHoo!
The intraday low in 2007 was 42.06, the Closing low was 42.15 and we just pierced both those lows on Friday! And it appears we have some more piercing to do before we complete this ST Bottom formation?
At the very least we should expect a close at the S4, 41.63 with some intraday action down at the S5, 41.08? We’d NOT rule out an extension down to the S6, 40.53, but UNLIKE Ta, Chart, Fibs and Lies play-ar’s we’d be Serious Net Buyers at that level?
We’ve pretty much got ANY Up action covered with our call positions at strike prices from 39 up to 47, and with some “Short” put positions at the 47, 46, and 44 strike prices we’re controlling 88k shares LONG! We only control 40k shares short with our Mar41 puts and “Short” Mar41 calls!
Obviously we’ll use our Ridiculous Long Bias to play intraday “Short” plays and attempt to post serous Daily Gains! We actually did that very thing Friday as we posted $9.92 in daily gains bringing our OE gain to an amazing $60.76 (this equates to $60,760 since we base ALL our calculations on 10 contracts or 1000 shares)!
That said, we’ve put out some hefty amounts of money, $-121k for our long plays, and even with our positions “Sold Short”, which have brought in $89k, we have about $-66k in losses pending on our Open positions giving us a Net Liquidation value of $-5.6k!? This demands that we continue to post Daily gains to attempt to offset said open position losses!
There is some good news in regard to these Cash outlays and they lie in our awesome pawn, bishop, and knight Long positions that will be Printing Money if we do finally complete this ST Bottom formation and head higher? The key component is to MAINTAIN a small loss as prices continue to Fall and then a DCB will be Most profitable as all our call positions come back to life!?
In da-Meantime, we MUST continue Off-Set our losses with Daily gains so expect us to play intraday short plays and we'll post profits as prices fall into our Profit-Zone!?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and Everyone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
OE Pivot, 43.82, close on 15Feb
High, 44.53, up 1.6%, new high, 28Feb
Low, 41.38, dn -5.6%, new low 07Mar
Close, 42.07, dn -4.0% (New 52 wk Closing Low, closed 42.15 on 05Mar07)
Spread, 3.15
PM, 7.2%
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q’s to go Down), controlling 40k shares
Mar41 puts at 0.625, (240 contracts), bought long
Mar41 calls at 1.63, (160 contracts), sold short
Long positions (expecting the Q’s to go Up), controlling 88k shares
Mar39 calls at 3.23, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar40 calls at 2.96, (160 contracts), bought long
Mar42 calls at 1.71, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar43 calls at 1.29, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar44 calls at 0.55, (160 contracts), bought long
Mar45 calls at 0.78, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar46 calls at 0.43, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar47 calls at 0.14, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar44 puts at 1.00, (80 contracts), sold short
Mar46 puts at 2.99, (80 contracts), sold short
Mar47 puts at 3.89, (80 contracts), sold short
This gives us a Serious Long da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
It appears we’re in the ninth inning in regard to completed a ST Bottom but it has been Five weeks since the first YTD low was posted and very trying for most TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies players! We expect a false break-down that’ll get Most Shorts going ALL-IN and most Longs ALL-OUT and that’s a recipe da-Boyz love to exploit, YOU GO BOYZ!
We posted Ridiculous gains yesterday as we traded in and/or out of puts and/or calls intraday and unloaded core positions to post some daily profits. Hence our MarOE profits increased by $9.92 to $60.76 as we started the day with $50.84 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Mar39 calls (80) at 3.23 – 3.15 = -0.08 x 8 = $- 0.64
Mar40 calls (160) at 2.96 - 2.33 = -0.63 x 16 = $-10.08
Mar42 calls (80) at 1.71 - 0.96 = -0.75 x 8 = $- 6.00
Mar43 calls (70) at 1.29 - 0.52 = -0.77 x 8 = $- 6.16
Mar44 calls (160) at 0.55 – 0.23 = -0.32 x 16 = $- 5.12
Mar45 calls (80) at 0.76 - 0.00 = -0.76 x 8 = $- 6.08
Mar46 calls (80) at 0.43 - 0.00 = -0.43 x 8 = $-3.44
Mar47 calls (80) at 0.14 - 0.00 = -0.14 x 8 = $-1.12
Mar41 puts (240) at 0.625 – 0.54 = -0.085 x 24 = $-2.04
Mar44 puts (80) at 1.00 – 2.14 = -1.14 x 8 = $-9.12
Mar46 puts (40) at 2.99-3.96 = -0.97 x 8 = $- 7.76
Mar47 puts (80) at 3.89 – 5.05 = -1.16 x 8 = $- 9.28
Pending Gain(s)
Mar41 calls (160) at 1.63- 1.60 = 0.03 x 16 = $ 0.48
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-66.36
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $18.28 (up 40.3%, $18.28 into 45.35 = 40.3%) ($36.50 in gains less $18.22 in losses)
MarOE, $- 5.60 ($60.76 in gains less $-66.36 in Open position losses)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
7-Mar 41.86 42.64 41.38 42.07
4cast
10-Mar 41.74 41.92 40.99 41.16
11-Mar 41.25 41.56 40.77 40.80
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
R8, 48.2, 10%
R7, 47.65, 8.75%
R6, 47.11, 7.5%
R5, 46.56, 6.25%
R4, 46.01, 5%, Serious Resistance and a GO Short level if tagged!
R3, 45.46, 3.75%
R2, 44.92, 2.5%, Our Primary Target for the wk of 01Mar!
R1, 44.37, 1.25%, breached 26Feb intraday.
Pivot, 43.82, 0.0%
S1, 43.27, -1.25%, Already tagged intraday 19Feb, Whatda!
S2, 42.72, -2.5%, Our Primary Target for the wk of 23Feb, Yep – Tagged 22Feb!
S3, 42.18, -3.75%, tagged 04Mar, and portends a move to the S4, 41.63 before 20Mar?
S4, 41.63, -5%, Serious Support and a GO Long level if tagged, Tagged 07Mar and caused a reversal!
S5, 41.08, -6.25%
S6, 40.53, -7.5%
S7, 39.99, -8.75%
S8, 39.44, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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