MarOE Stuff?
Alrighty then, we did get the 4cast -2.8% decline and closed at 42.95 (dn -2.7%), which is very near the S2, 42.72! This is a New OE closing low and is only .35 above the OE intraday low of 42.60 posted on 22Feb! This portends a new OE intraday low to follow but we’ll be buyers of that new low and as long as price closes ABOVE the S2, 42.72, we have a destiny to back-test the OE pivot, 43.82, at the very least!?
The same TA, Chart, Fibs & lies play-ar’s talking Breakout up above the R1, 44.37, will be talking Breakdown as we flirt with the S2, 42.72, NOT!?
We used the down action to unwind several short positions and posted $6.96 in daily gains which brought our OE total posted gains to $24.08! This is an Awesome start to the MarOE period, especially since we have Three Freakin Weeks and a couple Fed rate cuts to contend with before 20Mar, WooHoo!?
We did, as we said we’d do, unwind short plays and wound-up long plays as we ended the day controlling 44k shares Long and only 24k short! This gives us the Net long bias we'll need as prices firm and head higher. Obviously we can play intraday Short plays Monday with little concern since our Long bias protects us against any up action!
FYI – We made a new MarOE high, 44.53, on 28Feb and the very next day posted a new MarOE Closing low, 42.95, WooHoo! That’s me kinda Weekly action and I sure hope TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies play-ar’s took Notes otherwise you gonna be Seriously disappointed next week, OUCH!?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and Everyone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
OE Pivot, 43.82, close on 15Feb
High, 44.53, up 1.6%, new high, 28Feb
Low, 42.60, dn -2.8%, new low 22Feb
Close, 42.95, dn -2.0% (this is a New MarOE closing low)
Spread, 1.93
PM, 4.4%
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q’s to go Down), controlling 24k shares
Mar41 puts at 0.60, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar42 puts at 0.63, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar43 puts at 0.90, (80 contracts), bought long
Long positions (expecting the Q’s to go Up), controlling 44k shares
Mar42 calls at 2.19, (40 contracts), bought long
Mar43 calls at 1.83, (40 contracts), bought long
Mar45 calls at 0.78, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar46 calls at 0.43, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar47 calls at 0.14, (80 contracts), bought long
Mar44 puts at 1.00, (80 contracts), sold short
Mar47 puts at 2.95, (40 contracts), sold short
This gives us a Net Long da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)
It appears we’re in the eight inning in regard to completed a ST Bottom but it has been Five weeks since the first YTD low was posted and very trying for most TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies players! We expect a false break-down that’ll get Most Shorts going ALL-IN and most Longs ALL-OUT and that’s a recipe da-Boyz love to exploit, YOU GO BOYZ!
We posted Awesome gains yesterday as we traded in and/or out of puts and/or calls intraday and unloaded core positions to post some daily profits. Hence our MarOE profits increased by $6.96 to $24.08 as we started the day with $17.12 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Losses):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Mar42 calls (80) at 2.19 – 1.84 = -0.35 x 4 = $-1.40
Mar43 calls (40) at 1.83 – 1.22 = -0.61 x 4 = $ -2.44
Mar45 calls (80) at 0.76 – 0.38 = -0.38 x 8 = $-3.04
Mar46 calls (80) at 0.43 – 0.16 = -0.27 x 8 = $-2.16
Mar47 calls (80) at 0.14 – 0.00 = -0.14 x 8 = $-1.12
Mar41 puts (40) at 0.60 – 0.43 = -0.17 x 8 = $-1.36
Mar44 puts (80) at 1.00 – 1.59 = -0.59 x 8 = $-4.72
Mar47 puts (40) at 2.95 – 3.93 = -0.98 x 8 = $-7.84
Pending Gain(s)
Mar42 puts (80) at 0.63 - 0.71 = .08 x 8 = $ 0.64
Mar43 puts (80) at 0.90 - 1.08 = -0.18 x 8 = $ 1.44
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-22.00
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $18.28 (up 40.3%, $18.28 into 45.35 = 40.3%) ($36.50 in gains less $18.22 in losses)
MarOE, $2.08 ($24.08 in gains less $-22.00 in Open position losses)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
25-Feb 43.62 44.07 43.34 43.90
26-Feb 43.65 44.48 43.37 44.12
27-Feb 43.77 44.46 43.67 44.29
28-Feb 44.11 44.53 43.95 44.12
29-Feb 43.65 43.77 42.85 42.95
4cast
3-Mar 42.72 44.74 42.36 44.64
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
R8, 48.2, 10%
R7, 47.65, 8.75%
R6, 47.11, 7.5%
R5, 46.56, 6.25%
R4, 46.01, 5%, Serious Resistance and a GO Short level if tagged!
R3, 45.46, 3.75%
R2, 44.92, 2.5%, Our Primary Target for the wk of 01Mar!
R1, 44.37, 1.25%, breached 26Feb intraday.
Pivot, 43.82, 0.0%
S1, 43.27, -1.25%, Already tagged intraday 19Feb, Whatda!
S2, 42.72, -2.5%, Our Primary Target for the wk of 23Feb, Yep – Tagged 22Feb!
S3, 42.18, -3.75%
S4, 41.63, -5%, Serious Support and a GO Long level if tagged!
S5, 41.08, -6.25%
S6, 40.53, -7.5%
S7, 39.99, -8.75%
S8, 39.44, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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