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Re: 3xBuBu post# 15727

Friday, 02/29/2008 8:12:00 PM

Friday, February 29, 2008 8:12:00 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 080229
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:25 pm : February ended on a down note after steep losses in Friday's trading. Each of the major indices finished more than 2% lower, dragged down by underwhelming economic data and corporate headlines.

Stocks opened trading lower today despite slightly better than expected Personal Consumption Expenditure data. January PCE indicated personal spending increased 0.4% and income increased 0.3% from December, which is better than the 0.2% rise economists expected for both figures. Core PCE, a measure of inflation, increased 0.3%. That was in-line with estimates.

However, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index posted a reading of 44.5 for February, which was short of the 49.5 consensus estimate. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity throughout the Chicago region.

Weak news from AIG (AIG 46.86, -3.29) weighed heavily on the broader market. AIG announced a net loss of $5.3 billion for its fourth quarter after yesterday's close. The company disclosed that the loss was triggered by larger write-downs than Wall Street was anticipating. Total write-downs for the quarter hit $14.3 billion, including $11 billion in credit swaps.

According to Bloomberg.com, UBS believes collective write-downs for financial firms could total at least $600 billion. An economist from Goldman Sachs pegged total write-downs at $400 billion. Current write-downs total $181 billion, according to Bloomberg.com.

Financial stocks saw additional pressure as municipal bonds are being liquidated by hedge funds as managers are being forced to meet margin calls. The move comes as a strike against liquidity conditions.

Bond insurer Ambac (ABK 11.14, -0.66) was sent lower when news surfaced that a potential bailout plan would not be coming as soon as believed. CNBC reported that the plan has stalled over the amount of capital that would be pledged by a consortium of banks.

While the broader market remained strongly negative -- 97% of the members within the S&P 500 finished the day in negative territory -- Gap (GPS 20.17, +0.72) provided a glimmer of green. The company announced after yesterday's close earnings results and an earnings outlook that were on par with analysts' estimates.

The financial sector (-4.0%) led the remaining major economic sectors to finish the day in negative territory. All ten sectors finished with losses in excess of 1.0%. Eight of the ten were down more than 2.0%.

In a flight to quality, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished the day 39 ticks higher to, in turn, yield 3.53%.

For the month, the S&P 500 finished down 3.5%, while the Dow finished 3.0% lower and the Nasdaq finished 5.0% lower.

Commodities fared far better as gold and oil hit record highs, up 5.2% and 11.0% for the month, respectively. The CRB Commodity Index finished February 11.7% higher.DJ30 -315.79 NASDAQ -60.09 NQ100 -2.7% R2K -2.8% SP400 -3.0% SP500 -37.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2313/628/2.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2707/431/1.76 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks remain deep into red territory, but are stepping back from session lows. The S&P 500 is now trading 3.2% lower for the month of February and 9.1% lower year-to-date.

Selling has been strong since the start of the session and has continued to increase into afternoon trading.DJ30 -282.49 NASDAQ -52.27 SP500 -32.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2234/665/1.88 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2679/433/1.17 bln

3:00 pm : The stock market has come off its session low, but still remains 2.3% lower. Financial stocks are the session's worst performers, down 3.2%.

AIG (AIG 46.76, -3.39) is the financial sector's worst performer. Shares of the financial and insurance company are trading lower in response to the company's larger than expected write-downs.

Crude prices pulled off record highs to settle $0.95 lower on the NYMEX. Crude closed at $101.64 per barrel.DJ30 -273.86 NASDAQ -49.83 SP500 -31.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2240/645/1.69 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2682/413/1.04 bln

2:30 pm : 96% of the members in the S&P 500 are trading in negative territory. The market continues to tread along its session lows as selling interest remains strong.

Financials (-3.3%), energy (-3.1%), and telecom (-3.2%) are the worst performing sectors.

According to Reuters, the U.S. municipal bond market has weakened as hedge funds liquidate positions.DJ30 -287.54 NASDAQ -52.81 SP500 -32.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2248/628/1.53 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2646/426/932 mln

2:00 pm : Stocks have taken a turn lower to establish fresh session lows in another broad based selling wave. The three major indices are each down more than 2.0%.

All ten economic sectors are showing a loss in excess of 1.0%.

Investor sentiment remains strongly negative. Declining issues outpace advancers by more than 5-to-1 on the NYSE.DJ30 -269.71 NASDAQ -49.54 SP500 -30.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2224/633/1.39 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2605/459/840 mln

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade well into negative territory. Investor pessimism has been evident from the session's start.

Gap (GPS 20.41, +0.96) is faring well in the face of the broader market. The company announced after yesterday's close earnings results that met estimates. The company also offered in-line earnings guidance.

In turn, Gap is giving strength to the S&P 500 apparel retailers index (+1.0%), which is one of only two industry groups within the S&P 500 to sport a gain this session. Biotech is up a mere 0.2% this session.DJ30 -201.65 NASDAQ -33.08 SP500 -22.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2044/748/1.24 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2473/570/742 mln

1:00 pm : Telecom is under substantial selling pressure, making it the worst performing sector this session. The sector is down 2.9%. AT&T (T 35.15, -0.81) and Verizon (VZ 36.50, -0.68) are both trading lower after making gains yesterday.

The defensive-oriented consumer staples sector is a relative leader, down 0.9%. Procter & Gamble (PG 66.36, -0.61) and Coca Cola (KO 58.66, -0.80) are the sector's worst performers.DJ30 -224.69 NASDAQ -41.06 SP500 -25.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2118/659/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2519/517/688 mln

12:35 pm : Major indices catch a modest bid on a bond insurer headline, although losses remain steep. After this session's retreat, the stock market has given up all of this week's prior gains.

Moody's said it is continuing to review Ambac (ABK 11.30, -0.37) for a possible downgrade, but believes Ambac's capital exceeds the minimum Aaa standard, but falls below the Aaa target level. The ratings firm expects Ambac will hit the target level if capital raising efforts succeed.DJ30 -200.10 NASDAQ -37.36 SP500 -22.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2050/701/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2451/568/637 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks extend yesterday's losses on weak economic and corporate news. Stocks are sharply lower at midday, and are poised to end the month in the red. If the S&P finishes this month in the red, it would mark its first four month consecutive losing streak since April 2002 to July 2002.

In corporate news, AIG (AIG 46.79, -3.36) was the latest company to fall victim to the credit market turmoil. It reported a fourth quarter loss of $5.3 billion, its largest ever. The loss was due to a massive $11.1 billion write-down related to subprime mortgages.

On a related note, Bloomberg.com reports that UBS believes financial companies will write-down a total of $600 billion in assets. This is much larger than the current write-downs of more than $160 billion.

Meanwhile, Ambac (ABK 11.23, -0.57) is lower after CNBC reported that its bailout plan has stalled over the amount of capital the consortium of banks are willing to put up. Also weighing on Ambac and fellow bond insurer MBIA (MBI 13.33, -0.73) is news that leveraged buyout mogul Wilbur Ross chose to invest up to $1 billion in Assured Guaranty (AGO 25.24, +2.46). Ross believes Assured is better positioned to flourish than MBIA and Ambac, according to Reuters.

Financials (-2.2%) are underperforming the broader market.

Dell (DELL 20.03, -0.84) is leading tech (-1.7%) lower after it reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.31 per share, including charges and gains. Dell's cautious comment that it is seeing a more conservative spending environment in some global accounts is weighing on tech stocks.

In economic news, the major indices fell to their worst levels of the session after the February Chicago PMI came in at 44.5, lower than the consensus estimate that stood at 49.5. It reflects a contraction in manufacturing in the Chicago region because the reading is below 50. It is the lowest number since December 2001.

On the bright side, January personal income and spending were slightly better than expected. PCE core, an inflation measure, was in-line with expectations. When adjusted for inflation, income was flat and spending was up a slight 0.1% month-over-month.

All ten economic sectors are lower, with telecom posting the largest loss of 2.7%. Consumer staples (-0.8%) is outperforming on a relative basis, and is the only sector that is posting loss of less than 1%. Selling interest has been broad-based. Only three of the 147 S&P 500 industry groups are trending higher. DJ30 -205.07 NASDAQ -40.06 SP500 -23.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2073/624/916 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2511/491/560 mln

11:30 am : The stock market makes a modest gain from its session low, although losses remain substantial. Market breadth is bearish. Decliners outpace advancers by 6-to-1 on the NYSE and by 3.5-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

The major indices around the world are down today. The Dow Jones World Ex US Index is down 1.5%.DJ30 -202.71 NASDAQ -40.11 SP500 -23.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2072/602/793 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2539/436/478 mln

11:00 am : The stock market is trading slightly above its worst level that was reached in the past half-hour, although buyers have yet to show much interest.

Gold is up for the fourth day in a row as traders buy the precious metal on inflation and economic concerns. Gold hit an all-time noninflation adjusted intraday high of $978.50 per ounce in earlier trade. The commodity is up nearly 37% compared to a year ago, and is up 15% in 2008 alone.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are rallying for the second straight day as weaker than expected economic data prompted traders to up their bets on the size of the March 18 fed funds rate cut. Fed funds futures now suggest a 62% chance of a 75 basis point cut, with a 50 basis point cut fully priced in. Last week there was only a 2% chance of a 75 basis point cut.

The current fed funds rate, which is the overnight lending rate between banks and the Fed, stands at 3.00% after the Fed cut rates by 225 basis points since September on economic concerns. DJ30 -218.02 NASDAQ -40.19 SP500 -24.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 551/2073/655 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 390/2547/383 mln

10:30 am : The major indices extend their losses. The recent wave of selling pressure was led by the tech sector (-1.9%)

The ten economic sectors are in the red, with all but consumer staples (-0.9%) posting a loss of more than 1%. Energy (-1.9%) is the main laggard as crude prices slide roughly 1% from all-time highs. Weakness is broad-based. Of the 147 S&P 500 industry groups, only two are posting a gain.

AIG (AIG 47.11, -3.04) is the worst performing stock in the S&P 500. The company reported a large $5.3 billion fourth quarter loss, resulting from a huge $11.1 billion in asset write-downs. It was AIG's largest loss ever.DJ30 -215.98 NASDAQ -41.34 SP500 -23.67 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2002/572/494 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2474/402/275 mln

10:00 am : Stocks extend their losses after a poor survey on manufacturing in the Chicago region.

The February Chicago PMI came in at 44.5, lower than the consensus estimate that stood at 49.5. It reflects a contraction in manufacturing in the Chicago region because the reading is below 50. It is the lowest number since December 2001.

Meanwhile, the revised February University of Michigan confidence survey was revised slightly higher to 70.8 from 69.6.DJ30 -156.20 NASDAQ -18.29 SP500 -24.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1793/629/629 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2367/412/160 mln

09:45 am : Stocks extend yesterday's losses. A record loss at AIG (AIG), cautious outlook from Dell (DELL) and reports that the Ambac (ABK) bailout has hit a "snag" are weighing on sentiment.

On the bright side, January personal income and spending were slightly better than expected. PCE core, an inflation measure, came in-line with expectations. When adjusted for inflation, income was flat and spending was up a slight 0.1% month-over-month.DJ30 -139.78 NASDAQ -17.94 SP500 -16.16

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -26.0. Futures contine to point to a negative start, but have climbed off their worst levels. UBS said financial companies are likely to have at least $600 billion in write-downs, according to Bloomberg.com. This is far more than the current total of write-downs, which stands at more than $160 billion.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -15.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -30.0. Futures don't get much of boost after better than expected income and spending numbers. January personal income increased by 0.3% month over month (consensus +0.2%), spending increased by 0.4% (consensus +0.2%) and core PCE rose by 0.3% (consensus +0.3%). December's spending reading was revised higher to 0.3% from 0.2%.

07:55 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -17.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.5. Futures suggest the stock market is going to extend yesterday’s losses. Cautious comments from Dell (DELL) and a $5.3 billion fourth quarter loss from AIG (AIG) is fuelling the selling pressure. A CNBC commentator said the bailout of bond insurer Ambac (ABK) has hit a fairly significant snag over the amount of capital the consortium of banks are willing to put up, which is also weighing on sentiment. The commentator said this does not mean the situation is dead. The January personal income and spending report is set for release at 8:30 ET.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.0.

06:19 am : FTSE...5920.30...-45.40...-0.8%. DAX...6794.74...-67.78...-1.0%.

06:19 am : Nikkei...13603.02...-322.49...-2.3%. Hang Seng...24331.67...-260.02...-1.1%.





My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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