Repros Therapeutics Inc (RPRX)

[exwannabe]

Prob of succcess in anemia

This is all off the cuff, just to sugest discussions.

1) Efficiency. Let's guess that 90% is the true power. That yeilde .9*9 = .81

2) Safety. This seams fairly clear. I will give it a .9

3) CMC. I only care about major issues because a minor issue can be shown to a partner and still generate cash. .95

4) The FDA doesn't accept the trial design as sufficient for approval. No SPA, small trial, some ex US. .8

5) The ex US arm is screwed up. .9

6) Other. In the words of Cheney the "unknown unknowns". .9

That yeilds .499

Fair Harbour Statement: All the above was pulled directly out of my A***