Repros Therapeutics Inc (RPRX)

[iwfal]

The "beef" is probability of success. Unless that probability is very low, RPRX is a screaming buy. And unless worries are couched in these risk-return terms, the commentator is either insincere or financially innumerate. So c'mon guys, with your little niggles about 85% powered and two times this, bring it down to brass tacks. Are you saying there's a 90% chance the PIIIs will fail? 80%? 70%? Or 5%? Because we are being paid to accept less than certainty of success, to put it mildly!

Corp - not exactly fair to RockRat (or myself). People have learned through hard experience in biotech to doubt everything - is the trial being run on the cheap in eastern europe? did the management team change the entrance criteria between the Uf ph iib and the anemia trial? is there a self selection issue with the anemia patients reported? ... . I believe that if you brought back a block buster drug from 2040 and gave it to 30 different small biotechs only one would be successful at getting it onto the market. Most small biotechs make multiple gaffes - but they aren't all of one flavor so lots of questions need to be asked.

Is Repros mgt better than most biotech? Unquestionably. But precise calibration is good. Are they in the top 5 of that thirty - or are they the one?

Note that as someone who has only loosely followed the company for a while and only very recently tracked closely I haven't yet boiled down the 4 or 5 key questions in my head - and in the process of my doing so you will see lots of chaffe (to mix metaphors). Hopefully that isn't too annoying.

Clark