yourbankruptcy: Since my "worried" post there has been further helpful discussion of the Xbits issue on SI. It includes some juggling with interpretations of AMD guidance at Q4 CC, and from Rivet in March, and Richard, last week. But essentially, the sum of the SI interpretation is a dismissal of the Xbits article as relying on partial, innacurate sources, or faulty assumptions.
But I am still uneasy. Waiting for 1Q CC to sort it out might prove to be expensive.
It would help if the Keith hint could be unambiguously interpreted to mean that the miscalculations of those to whom he refers was under not over.
NiceGuy wonders if the Xbits confusion is holding the stock price back. Other than that he wonders what, actually, is restraining it.
My belief is that the run-up to $18 was forward-looking. We are now in a period of consolidation of those gains. This includes a lot of backing and filling. This process is more volatile in AMD's case because it has always attracted short-term traders. In addition, the semi-conductors, as a group, is governed by seasonal rhythms. The next leg up for AMD will require it to "show the money" in terms of revenues, profits and production performance. For the rest of 2004, the AMD common will probably have to fight choppy waters in semiconductors, and even a reverse undertow, caused by Intel.
(I'm starting to feel sea-sick now so I'll stop with the metaphors.)
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