Sunday, February 17, 2008 2:40:30 PM
I think MNTA is interesting, but over-blown on these boards.
Over-blown, because the pipe-line isn't half what DewD makes it out to be be. Note that no-one in months of posting has come up with a theory as to how the Copaxone patents might be over-turned, nor how many years that might take. Also, despite price increases the drug just had a hefty 4% Q-o-Q decline (not just Rx, but $ sales) in the USA, as Tysabri starts to flex it's efficacy muscles. Plus it's far more likely that oral MS drugs with better efficacy will arrive before any patent resolution, much less a successful ANDA.
I think MNTA investors on these boards should look at the MNTA pumping in the light of this generic Copaxone hype - this aspect of the pipe-line is among the most thread-bare speculation I have ever seen supported for months here. Like it has no basis in reality at all. If the other candidates are dressed up with equal BS, then caveat emptor.
However - MNTA is indeed interesting because it would have first-mover status, and there may be some political wind in the sails. In a way, it is pure biotech - it asks, "shouldn't the pharmaceutical world change for the better ?".
By-the-way, whenever DewD posts about shorting, I am reminded of his "averaging-up" on a DNA short in late '03, and another gallant series of "re-shorting" DNA trades in early '04. You can probably find the story by searching on BV. Definitely some short trades that until then I did not find imagineable.
Over-blown, because the pipe-line isn't half what DewD makes it out to be be. Note that no-one in months of posting has come up with a theory as to how the Copaxone patents might be over-turned, nor how many years that might take. Also, despite price increases the drug just had a hefty 4% Q-o-Q decline (not just Rx, but $ sales) in the USA, as Tysabri starts to flex it's efficacy muscles. Plus it's far more likely that oral MS drugs with better efficacy will arrive before any patent resolution, much less a successful ANDA.
I think MNTA investors on these boards should look at the MNTA pumping in the light of this generic Copaxone hype - this aspect of the pipe-line is among the most thread-bare speculation I have ever seen supported for months here. Like it has no basis in reality at all. If the other candidates are dressed up with equal BS, then caveat emptor.
However - MNTA is indeed interesting because it would have first-mover status, and there may be some political wind in the sails. In a way, it is pure biotech - it asks, "shouldn't the pharmaceutical world change for the better ?".
By-the-way, whenever DewD posts about shorting, I am reminded of his "averaging-up" on a DNA short in late '03, and another gallant series of "re-shorting" DNA trades in early '04. You can probably find the story by searching on BV. Definitely some short trades that until then I did not find imagineable.
"....on the biotech battle-field, you need some élan...."
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