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Re: 3xBuBu post# 15343

Friday, 02/15/2008 10:02:27 PM

Friday, February 15, 2008 10:02:27 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 080215
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:15 pm : Stocks were in negative territory for most of the session on Friday as worse than expected economic data weighed on sentiment. However, a late-day surge in buying interest, led by financials, helped the S&P 500 close slightly above the unchanged mark. The Nasdaq was again a laggard as tech finished the day down -0.5%.

With regard to the economic news, industrial production rose 0.1%, which was in-line with expectations. The data are not strong, but do not indicate manufacturing is contracting as typically happens before a recession.

Other economic data were more negative this morning, and garnered more of a response from the market--even though they are only surveys.

The February NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, a regional manufacturing survey, dropped to -11.7 from 9.0 in January. The reading also fell short of the consensus estimate of 7.0. Because the reading is below 0, it reflects a contraction in manufacturing in the New York area. This number is certainly not good news, but Briefing.com does not put as much emphasis on these surveys as the market does.

On a related note, the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey fell to 69.6, from 78.4. Economists expected a reading of 76.5. This is the lowest confidence level since 1992. It is important to keep in mind this sentiment reading does not actually correlate with spending, and it is not surprising the reading would be low due to all the negative headlines lately.

Best Buy (BBY 44.62, -1.15) was a laggard after the company cut its FY08 guidance, citing soft consumer traffic. The company is now expecting earnings per share of $3.05 to $3.10, down from $3.10 to $3.20. The First Call consensus stood at $3.17.

Two standouts on Friday were Kraft (KFT 31.33, +2.02) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK 44.19, +0.87) on news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 143,500, +510) has amassed stakes in the companies. Kraft ended the day as the best performing S&P 500 stock. Berkshire also upped its stake in Wells Fargo (WFC 26.69, +0.16) and CarMax (KMX 18.78, -0.07). It is not clear whether the investments were made by Warren Buffett, or by one of Berkshire's many subsidiaries.

Bond insurers again garnered attention. FGIC said that it wants to split its company into two parts, according to reports. One of the companies would hold its municipal bond insurance holdings, while the other would hold its structured investment vehicles. It was reported yesterday that this was one of the possible plans for the struggling bond insurers. Yesterday, FGIC lost its AAA rating at Moody's.

Five of the ten sectors finished lower. Tech (-0.5%) and industrials (-0.5%) were the main laggards. Financials (+0.6%) finished as the leader after a late-day surge in buying interest. DJ30 -28.77 NASDAQ -10.74 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.3% SP500 +1.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1862/1049/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1742/1361/1.50 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks catch a bid, with the S&P 500 climbing to modestly below the unchanged mark. Financials (+0.1%) are playing a large role in the uptick, as the sector makes it into positive territory.

Stocks are set to end the week with a modest gain, despite the declines yesterday and today.

As a reminder, the U.S. stock and Treasury markets will be closed on Monday in observation of Presidents Day. Trading resumes Tuesday for a full session.DJ30 -61.45 NASDAQ -16.58 SP500 -3.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1968/942/1.62 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2125/951/1.10 bln

2:55 pm : The stock market continues to trade in somewhat choppy fashion near the bottom of this session's range. Broad-based weakness is prevalent as only healthcare (+0.2%) and consumer staples (+0.1%) are trading in the green, and those gains are slight. Energy (-1.2%) and tech (-0.9%) are the main laggards.Within the S&P 500, 355 stocks are trending lower.

Exxon-Mobil (XOM 84.65, -0.91) is the main laggard, and Apple (AAPL 124.34, -3.11) is once again facing steep selling pressure. Kraft (KFT 31.30, +1.99) is providing leadership due to news of Berkshire Hathaway's stake. Comcast (CMCSA 20.03, +0.80) is also a leader as traders continue to respond positively to its earnings report that was reported yesterday. DJ30 -71.12 NASDAQ -19.86 SP500 -5.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2011/877/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2122/950/1.02 bln

2:30 pm : The major indices remain in the red. For most of the session, buyers have been sitting on sidelines. World stocks also have not fared well. The DJ World Index excluding U.S. is down 0.9%.

Gold closed $4.60 lower to $906.20 per ounce.DJ30 -82.02 NASDAQ -23.24 SP500 -7.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2010/852/1.23 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2177/883/1.00 bln

2:00 pm : The major indices have made up some ground, although they remain in the red. News has slowed, but that is typical in late-afternoon trade.

Market breadth is bearish. Decliners outpace advancers by 2.5-to-1 on the NYSE and by more than 2-to-1 on the Nasdaq. New 52-week lows outpace new highs by 10-to-1 on the NYSE and by 17-to-1 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 -61.86 NASDAQ -18.95 SP500 -5.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 883/1961/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2155/910/927 mln

1:30 pm : The stock market remains in the red, modestly above its worst level of the session. Volume is on the heavy side, partially due to options expirations.

Fed Governor Mishkin basically reiterated what the Fed has been saying since the last meeting. He said there is a "substantial" growth risk and the Fed will be flexible in adjusting rates in response to new information.DJ30 -76.57 NASDAQ -22.53 SP500 -8.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1985/853/1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2210/839/869 mln

1:00 pm : Stocks fall to fresh session lows in the past half hour of trade and then recover a bit. Despite declines the last two session, the stock market is still set to end the week modestly higher at current levels.

Crude oil is posting a loss of $0.62 to $94.84 after hitting as high as $96.67 earlier in the session. The slip in oil prices is weighing on energy stocks, which are posting a loss of roughly 1.4%.DJ30 -73.97 NASDAQ -22.63 SP500 -8.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1987/833/1.10 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2246/790/815 mln

12:30 pm : The stock market is in negative territory, as it has been throughout the session. It is off its worst level, as some relative strength in consumer goods has helped give the market a modest boost.

Platinum & precious metals is the best performing group as it surges 6.4%. Platinum is up $44.50 to $2,055 per ounce.DJ30 -75.19 NASDAQ -22.43 SP500 -9.24 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1978/819/991 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2241/771/730 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks have remained in negative territory throughout the session, with economic concerns the main culprit behind the selling pressure. Stocks are currently posting decent sized losses, near their worst levels of the session.

Industrial production rose 0.1%, spot on with what economists were expecting. The data are not strong, but do not indicate manufacturing is contracting as typically happens before a recession.

Other data were more negative this morning, and garnered more of a response from the market--even though they are only surveys.

The February NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, a regional manufacturing survey, dropped to -11.7 from 9.0 in January. The reading also fell short of the consensus estimate of 7.0. Because the reading is below 0, it reflects a contraction in manufacturing in the New York area. This number is certainly not good news, but Briefing.com does not put as much emphasis on these surveys as the market does.

On a related note, the University of Michigan Sentiment Survey fell to 69.6, from 78.4. Economists expected a reading of 76.5. This is the lowest confidence level since 1992. It is important to keep in mind this sentiment reading does not actually correlate with spending, and it is not surprising the reading would be low due to all the negative headlines lately.

Also weighing on the market is an earnings warning from Best Buy (BBY 44.20, -1.57). Best Buy cut its FY08 guidance, citing soft consumer traffic. The company is now expecting earnings per share of $3.05 to $3.10, down from $3.10 to $3.20. The First Call consensus stood at $3.17. As a result, the stock, and retailers, have faced some selling pressure.

Two standouts this session are Kraft (KFT 30.99, +1.68) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK 43.98, +0.66) on news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 141,100, -1,890) has amassed stakes in the companies. Berkshire also upped its stake in Wells Fargo (WFC 29.21, -0.38) and CarMax (KMX 18.60, -0.25). It is not clear whether the investments were made by Warren Buffett, or by one of Berkshire's many subsidiaries. DJ30 -75.27 NASDAQ -20.92 SP500 -8.89 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1943/826/880 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2207/791/676 mln

11:30 am : The major indices continue to post modest losses with the Nasdaq once again underperforming. This time it is not due to large-cap names, but rather biotech (-1.1%) and banks (-0.8%).

Kraft (KFT 30.96, +1.65) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK 43.89, +0.57) are standouts this session on news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 141,200.00, -1,790) has taken a stake in the companies. It is not clear whether the investments were made by Warren Buffett, or by one of Berkshire's many subsidiaries.
DJ30 -50.96 NASDAQ -17.15 SP500 -7.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1851/846/865 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2142/823/602 mln

11:00 am : Stocks are off their lows as they trade with modest losses. Eight of the ten economic sectors are in negative territory. Industrials (-0.8%) are leading the decline after the NY Empire Index disappointed traders by showing a contraction in manufacturing activity in that region. Healthcare (+0.3%) is outperforming witha 0.3% gain.DJ30 -49.99 NASDAQ -11.56 SP500 -4.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1766/872/645 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2074/857/522 mln

10:30 am : Stocks are off their worst levels but remain in negative territory.

Best Buy (BBY 44.12, -1.65) has cut its FY08 guidance, citing soft consumer traffic. The company is now expecting earnings per share of $3.05 to $3.10, down from $3.10 to $3.20. The First Call consensus stood at $3.17. As a result, the stock is a laggard.DJ30 -37.55 NASDAQ -11.03 SP500 -3.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/832/511 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2051/842/435 mln

10:00 am : The stock market faces additional selling pressure due to another worse than expected economic reading. The University of Michigan Sentiment survey dropped to 69.6, lower than the expected reading of 78.00. The survey was released a few minutes prior to its expected 10:00 ET release.

UBS said banks may write-down an additional $203 billion, according to Bloomberg.com. The additional write-downs are largely due to the bond insurance credit crisis. Banks have already written down $150 billion, according to the article.

Financials are down 1.4%. Bear Stearns (BSC 77.89, -0.58) and Lehman Brothers (LEH 53.54, -0.85) had their first quarter earnings estimates lowered at Fox Pitt.DJ30 -81.53 NASDAQ -16.81 SP500 -9.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1715/688/305 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2199/579/301 mln

09:40 am : Stocks open modestly lower after seeing sharp declines in yesterday's trade. Weighing on the market is a weak economic reading and continued concerns over financial companies.

In economic news, The NY Empire Index, a regional manufacturing survey, fell 11.7 compared to the expected reading of 7.0. The market had a noticeable negative response to the reading, but it should be kept in mind it is only a regional survey.

Separately, industrial production rose 0.1%, which is what economists were calling for. The in-line reading had a limited effect on the market.DJ30 -36.82 NASDAQ -9.83 SP500 -4.20

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. January industrial production rose 0.1%, in-line with expectations. Futures had already regained some ground and its response to the data was muted.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.5. Futures continue to suggest a lower start to the trading day. FGIC tells the NY Insurance Dept. that it wants to be split into two companies, according to CNBC. Yesterday, FGIC lost its AAA rating at Moody’s. There were reports yesterday that the bond insurance companies could be split into two companies. The municipal bond and other healthy parts of the bond insurance companies would be separated from the structured investment vehicles and more “exotic” parts of the businesses.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.5. Futures continue to decline on a weak economic reading. Just reported, January import prices rose 1.7% month over month, compared to the prior decline of 0.2%. The NY Empire State Index for February came in at -11.7, compared to the expected reading of 7.0. Futures respond negatively immediately after the releases. Best Buy (BBY) has cut is FY08 guidance, citing soft consumer traffic. The company is now expecting earnings per share of $3.05 to $3.10, down from $3.10 to $3.20. The First Call consensus stood at $3.17.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0. Futures suggest a lower start following yesterday’s steep declines. Continued concerns over bond insurers and yesterday’s comments by Bernanke are weighing on the market. Garnering attention this morning is news that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has taken a stake in Kraft (KFT) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and increased its stake in Wells Fargo (WFC) and CarMax (KMX).

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5.

06:20 am : FTSE...5867.90...-11.40...-0.2%. DAX...6958.51...-3.77...-0.1%.

06:20 am : Nikkei...13622.56...-3.89...-0.0%. Hang Seng...24148.43...+126.75...+0.5%.






My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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