FebOE Stuff?
As Jim Carrey said in Dumb and Dumb-r, “Wow” I was WAY OFF”, and we was ALL dat on Thursday as da-Boyz CUT and RAN and left da-Bulls reeling in disbelief, OUCH!?
That said, the price action helped us post some nice gains, reduce some serious loss-es that were pending on Open positions, and we took our First loss, $-6.44, on our Feb43 calls we bought quite a while back. This loss also contributed to our first daily loss as well, $-2.56 (Gain, 3.88, loss, $-6.44, Net, $-2.56)
The net OE result was an increase in our NET gain from $9.50 starting the day to $14.90 as many of our Open Short positions improved dramatically in our favor! BUT, we’re positioned to improve our gains if prices go Higher, especially since we bought Mar41 calls yesterday, so we need to configure some MarOE puts as well to align with the Down 4cast!
Today will be our second Net Loss day as we realize our outstanding loss-es on Open positions. This loss was tallied up and reported for all to see during the OE period and today we either close said positions and take the loss or let it expire and post the loss accordingly. We start today with $-27.68 in pending loss(s) and $42.58 in posted gains, giving us our Net Gain of $14.90 ($42.58 - $27.68 = $14.90). You can view the detail under the “Pending Gain/-Loss(s)” section listed below.
We indicated that by the time this week ended many would be reflecting on a week dat “Was” and “Was NOT” and proclaim-ing to all that would listen “What just Happened here” and if Friday has the dismal price action 4cast, many will have plenty to talk about during the three day weekend!?
More importantly, the worst is still in front of us, and while Friday will be Painful, next week (a Four day week at that), will likely see some SERIOUS Towel throwing and those towels will be white and from da-Bulls side of the court as the 4cast is portending a six percent decline in FOUR days, OUCH!?
As is often the case, we look to start the MarOE In da-Hole with our Mar41 call options? It also appears we’ll have our work cut out for us next week as we watch the Q’s fall -6% from today’s close! This will put us to task as we try to minimize the damage to our OE port and post yet another 20% plus gain?
Btw ALL, there are MANY Prognosticators and EVERYone has an opinion, good for them! But we be here to make YOU Money and could care less about being Right or Wrong, as a matter of fact, we be wrong plenty of times but being able to ascertain said "Wrong-ness" is our specialty, and being able to hedge said probable "Wrong" outcome is in our Charter! Therefore we go forward every day posting our trades in Real time, many times in advance using price triggers, then add-em up each day, then tallying the Final Numbers to confess for ALL to see the Good , da-Bad, and da-Ugly!
OE Pivot, 45.35, close on 18Jan
High, 45.88, up 1.2% (New High, 01Feb)
Low, 41.61, dn -8.2% (Posted 23Jan)
Close, 43.97, dn -3.0%
Spread, 3.16
PM, 9.4%
We start today with the following Open OE Port positions:
Short positions (expecting the Q’s to go Down), controlling 24k shares
Feb41 puts at 0.180, (QUAD), bought long
Feb42 puts at 0.565, (QUAD), bought long
Feb43 puts at 0.40, (QUAD), bought long
Feb44 puts at 0.7525, (80 contracts), bought long
Feb40 calls at 2.88, (QUAD), sold short
Long positions (expecting the Q’s to go Up), controlling 40k shares
Feb45 calls at 0.6525, (160 contracts), bought long
Feb46 calls at 0.32, (QUAD), bought long
Feb47 calls at 0.14, (QUAD), bought long
Feb48 calls at 0.05, (QUAD), bought long
Feb46 puts at 1.645, (80 contracts), sold short
Mar41 calls at 3.57, (QUAD), bought long
This gives us a Net Long da-Q's bias going into today and we'll use said Bias to play intraday Short plays to protect our Core positions and to post gains in an effort to minimize our pending losses on Open Positions.
These intraday plays are strategic in nature and will help us post profits that will off-set our losses incurred during this OE period as we HOLD Core positions indefinitely (see below side notes, Pending Gains/Loses)!
DCB (Dead Cat Bounce or NOT)!
FORGET about it, the DCB is Dead and we be expecting a -3.0 decline today and an additional -6.0% decline next week!
We posted our First LOSS today as we Unwind core and intrday positions. Hence our FebOE profits decreased by $-2.56 to $42.58 as we started the day with $45.14 in profits!
These posted profits are impressive but don’t forget we have many wounded soldiers still on the battlefield (pawns, bishops, and Knights) bleeding RED numbers everywhere, especially as we get closer to the OE and the delta shrinks up into a wie, sorry Michelle, small amount, see “Pending Gains/Losses” below!
Those gains are actually quite good since most of our gains usually come a couple weeks into the OE period. Mostly just positioning our pawns, bishops, and knights during the first couple weeks so it’s a bonus to post modest profits already!
Btw…if you don’t play Chess then I suggest you STOP trading Immediately and go learn da-Game, da-Chess game dat is! But don’t stop dare, stay away until you can actually BEAT someone at Chess. Otherwise, as most players who read to learn vs. actual experience, you’ll have learned just enough to lose your SorryAsskie life Savings, Get-it, Got-it, GOOD!
Side note (Pending Gains/-Loss(s):
These gains/losses will post when positions are removed and/or expire!
Pending -Loss(s)
Feb40 calls (QUAD) at 2.88 – 3.96 (closing $) = -1.08 x 4 = $-4.32
Feb45 calls (160 contracts) at 0.6525 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.6525 x 16 = $-10.44
Feb46 calls (QUAD) at 0.32 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.32 x 4 = $-1.28
Feb47 calls (QUAD) at 0.14 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.14 x 4 = $-0.56
Feb48 calls (QUAD) at 0.05 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.05 x 4 = $-0.20
Feb41 puts (QUAD) at 0.18 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.18 x 4 = $-0.72
Feb42 puts (QUAD) at 0.565 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.565 x 4 = $-2.26
Feb43 puts (QUAD) at 0.40 – 0.00 (closing $) = -0.40 x 4 = $-1.60
Feb44 puts (80 contracts) at 0.7525 – 0.27 (closing $) = -0.4825 x 8 = $-3.86
Feb46 puts (80 contracts) at 1.645 – 1.96 (closing $) = -0.315 x 8 = $-2.52
Pending Gain(s)
Mar41 calls (QUAD) at 3.57 – 3.59 (closing $) = 0.02 x 4 = $0.08
Net gain/-loss pending for above open positions at the close = $-27.68
This pending gain/-loss(s) is dependent on our ability to navigate this OE period with the utmost precision in regard to da-Boyz! Not to worry, we suspect da-OEPM factor will shed some light on da-Boyz and their Footprints of meaning (True intentions), LOL!?
Gain/-Loss History:
JanOE, $10.40 (up 20.2%, $10.40 into 51.85 = 20.2%)
FebOE, $14.90 (42.58 -27.68) (if liquidated at the Close)
For your viewing pleasure da-OEPM 4cast-r says.....?
Date Open High Low Close
8-Feb 43.18 43.77 42.94 43.60
11-Feb 43.78 44.22 43.54 44.07
12-Feb 44.33 44.66 43.51 43.82
13-Feb 44.39 44.88 44.16 44.78
14-Feb 44.84 44.85 43.89 43.97
4cast
15-Feb 43.99 44.12 42.49 42.66
And in da-Spirit of da-Boyz club and their House rules, we remain committed to being BOTH Long and Short at the same time so as to be READY and ABLE to meet-em at whichever lines they decide suits their fancy and at a time and/or day of their choosing (Ohhhhh BOYYYYOYZ, come, and, GET US, LOL)!?
In summary, YOU GO BOYZ and do your thing, but remember this, we got your Back, Front, and any other side you choose to expose as you paint dem dare pictures, I guess Boyz will be Boyz now won’t They, LOL!?
Good trades ALL,
nm
BONUS OE STUFF, Remember – the CLOSING price tells ALL in regard the OEPM factor!
OE key Pivot Points
R8, 49.89, 10%
R7, 49.32, 8.75%
R6, 48.75, 7.5%
R5, 48.18, 6.25%
R4, 47.62, 5%, Now our Primary Bounce Target but we’ll likely have to complete the “ST” bottom first!?
R3, 47.05, 3.75%
R2, 46.48, 2.5%, Pre-Launch Target into 11/12Feb?
R1, 45.92, 1.25%
Pivot, 45.35, 0.0% , Our Primary target to confirm Launch Mode, prices MUST Close and Stay above this line!
S1, 44.78, -1.25%
S2, 44.22, -2.5%, Now Serious Resistance!
S3, 43.65, -3.75%
S4, 43.08, -5% , tagged 23Jan and now Serious Support on a Closing basis
S5, 42.52, -6.25%
S6, 41.95, -7.5%, Tagged 23Jan and about to be re-tested before we head higher?
S7, 41.38, -8.75%, Came within pennies of the S7 but I suspect we’ll NOT visit this level until June?
S8, 40.82, -10%
Most importantly, ARE you having FUN YET, I know I am!
FYI - we post EVERY trade in real time and in many cases post pre-trade sell and buy orders with trigger prices in anticipation of our 4cast! So ENJOY da-Show as we rat out da-Boyz club and have a little FUN while we're at it (I hope da-Boyz don't read dis-post otherwise they'll be GUN-ing for us - AGAIN, LOL!
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