Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Could very well be that we repeat 2000, but it goes against the grain that this year is "reelection" games and 2000 was end of term reelection. In 2000, the feds also stepped quite hard on the brakes, while fiscal policy was extremely restrictive (budget surpluses do precipitate recessions, particularly when they go above 1% of GDP, in 2000 the rate was close to 2%...), this time, both monetary and fiscal policy are extremely stimulative, so it may very well be too early for a "recession forecasting" bear market. If it is not the first bear fang, then 300 Naz points total decline is just as severe as a correction should be. The fact that the same parameters that "foresaw" this decline last Christmas are now pointing to an approaching bottom make me ready to unzip the bear suit any time soon. I may be two weeks early as the bear call was, but just as it was wise, IMTO, to get stuff off the table, not waiting for the last hurrah of the January bull move, it may be wise to start deployment here even if a little suffering (and probably few cases of stop losses caused whipsaw) for a short time ensue. I have already deployed a little being under 50% in cash here.