I've been thinking more and more about the cash they have and JJ's comments in the past year and I get the sense they may do a descent sized deal yet. Why? No reason in particular but it strikes me as an opportunistic time in biotech land as many are not much above cash and/or are cash strapped. The two deals they did were very minor in my book and I think JJ wants a more near-to-market product.
I could see a deal like the following (and I don't necessarily want it to happen as I am down a fair amount on the stock just pose it as an example)...
Take Altus Pharmaceuticals. Stock is about 6 and has 30 million shares and say about 140 million in cash/securities (this is all back-of-the-hand so give me some flexibility I know they have some debts but they also have NOL's). So basically the market is valuing the technology at 40 million. They have 3 products in human testing and several more preclinical. One product in preclinical would be a direct competitor to PEG-PAL (a.k.a. treatment for all PKU patients especially non-Kuvan responders). Their most advanced product Trizytek (ALTU-135) is a pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy used primarily by cystic fibrosis patients and interestingly Biomarin just licensed a cf product. I also think Biomarin would have strong interest ALTU-237 (hyperoxaluria).
The CEO recently left and former TKT CEO/COO replaced him. If Altus were to be broken up (aside from the technology, ALTU-238 is their other key asset) I am sure the three products I mentioned above would be worth > 100 million to BioMarin and yet the market is saying you can have them and more for 40 million.
I am familiar with both companies so this example comes readily but there are probably many other late stage drugs available for licensing by companies that don't have the cash/resources to commercialize them.
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