Short Term Trading Member Forum

[airedale88]

IMO we're approx 11.5 days along from the 1/23 low, which i have labeled as a 2.5 wk cycle straddle low. i expect this upcoming 5 wk cycle low to be approx 12 to 13 days from the 1/23 low. i believe this is an important low in determining whether or not the market is still weighted down by the fundamental impact of the subprime disaster. holding above the 1/23 low and undershooting the current 2.5 wk fld downside projection would both be short to intermediate bullish signs.
the chart below has my suggested cycle phasing applied to two different country indices and two different SP sectors. each has had different exposure to the effect of the subprime/banking events. they also show the 1st week of the new year portfolio changes mrusa mentioned in a reminder post last december, and the large 5 day drop as the soc gen holdings were sold. that french trader who hid over 7 billion in losses had his largest long positions in DAX futures. after the subprime damage and ensuing fear of more to come, there was no liquidity when those positions hit the various markets.