AI
Monday, March 22, 2004 12:29:15 PM
*** Gold related post ***
Gold bugs or gold bulls?
By Peter Brimelow,
CBS.MarketWatch.com
March 22, 2004
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - "The REAL Gold Bull Market?" cheerfully proposed gold friend Bill Buckner of The Privaeteer in his Saturday comment, no doubt facilitated by the time zone advantage offered by his remote lair, way up the coast from Brisbane, Australia.
"Over the past week, spot future Comex Gold has had its best weekly rise for five months, rising from $US 395.60 to $412.70. That's a rise of $US 17.10 or 4.32%."
Buckner's site, with its powerful charting capabilities, is among the most dramatic examples of a newsletter adapting to the Internet. He went on to penetratingly remark:
"But that's not all. Here is the movement of the gold price in ten selected currencies this week, arranged in order of the magnitude of the upmove:" -- and followed with a table showing gold moved significantly last week against all the major currencies except the yen (He didn't bother with the Chinese yuan).
From his own, rather different, geographical viewpoint, underneath a snowdrift in the hills of New Hampshire, Free Market Gold & Money editor James Turk saw related reasons to be upbeat:
"Gold's long-term uptrend remains firmly in place... Gold appears to be breaking out of the flag pattern that has formed over the last two months....'Flags' are a common consolidation pattern...It is logical to expect that this current flag will end with an upside breakout, which in fact now seems to be in progress."
All of this was little comfort to the owners of gold shares. A sluggish week saw both the XAU and HUI indexes close slightly lower.
This is not entirely surprising. Several influential commentators, for instance James Dines and Harry Schultz, have been worried about gold equities.
The former, in the latest Dines Letter observed of the golds: "Nonetheless, some suspiciously Top-like Formations are evolving, and we will 'tighten our stops' on them, just in case."
While the latter, in his latest HSL said, "What action to take? If U are a bit overweight in gold shares &/or if U own some clearly underperforming stocks (like the list above), I would sell them (I have). I would not sell bullion or coins, but weeding out weak golds is no different from weeding out hi-techs, drug stocks or any other group. Keep the strong."
(In fairness, it should be noted these comments do not cover the events of the past few days.)
Possibly the negativism of these and other pessimistic commentators have influenced the behavior of the quite in-grown gold share community.
There is a specter haunting gold and gold shares. (You have to be a product of the '60s to get the allusion) Do gold and gold shares predict? Don Hays, the Wall Street Triumphalist, whose technical work always merits serious attention, was provoked into an unusually prolonged discussion of the metal on Friday:
"It is my thesis, strictly by observing the long-term price action of gold when history tells us the Fed has either been too tight or too loose, that the price of gold in the range of $370-$400 is about right."
Why?
This, of course, is the manipulation-inviting type of reasoning which drives Bill Murphy's LeMetropole Café's readership into rage.
Martin Pring provides, perhaps, a more immediately useful investment perspective: "the Gold Bug Gold Share Index (HUI: news, chart, profile)... with a decisive daily close above 231, would be an excellent pointer that the gold price is about to make a new bull market high."
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0B4DF8BA%2D51C7%2D4974%2DAE42%2D72C67F4B59FD%7D&am...
=================================================================
And for anyone who was interested enough to get this far.......
The current HUI quote:
Index Value: 231.95
Trade Time: 12:22PM ET
Change: 3.43 (1.50%)
Prev Close: 228.52
Open: 228.52
Day's Range: 228.52 - 233.87
52wk Range: 114.06 - 258.60
Gold bugs or gold bulls?
By Peter Brimelow,
CBS.MarketWatch.com
March 22, 2004
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - "The REAL Gold Bull Market?" cheerfully proposed gold friend Bill Buckner of The Privaeteer in his Saturday comment, no doubt facilitated by the time zone advantage offered by his remote lair, way up the coast from Brisbane, Australia.
"Over the past week, spot future Comex Gold has had its best weekly rise for five months, rising from $US 395.60 to $412.70. That's a rise of $US 17.10 or 4.32%."
Buckner's site, with its powerful charting capabilities, is among the most dramatic examples of a newsletter adapting to the Internet. He went on to penetratingly remark:
"But that's not all. Here is the movement of the gold price in ten selected currencies this week, arranged in order of the magnitude of the upmove:" -- and followed with a table showing gold moved significantly last week against all the major currencies except the yen (He didn't bother with the Chinese yuan).
From his own, rather different, geographical viewpoint, underneath a snowdrift in the hills of New Hampshire, Free Market Gold & Money editor James Turk saw related reasons to be upbeat:
"Gold's long-term uptrend remains firmly in place... Gold appears to be breaking out of the flag pattern that has formed over the last two months....'Flags' are a common consolidation pattern...It is logical to expect that this current flag will end with an upside breakout, which in fact now seems to be in progress."
All of this was little comfort to the owners of gold shares. A sluggish week saw both the XAU and HUI indexes close slightly lower.
This is not entirely surprising. Several influential commentators, for instance James Dines and Harry Schultz, have been worried about gold equities.
The former, in the latest Dines Letter observed of the golds: "Nonetheless, some suspiciously Top-like Formations are evolving, and we will 'tighten our stops' on them, just in case."
While the latter, in his latest HSL said, "What action to take? If U are a bit overweight in gold shares &/or if U own some clearly underperforming stocks (like the list above), I would sell them (I have). I would not sell bullion or coins, but weeding out weak golds is no different from weeding out hi-techs, drug stocks or any other group. Keep the strong."
(In fairness, it should be noted these comments do not cover the events of the past few days.)
Possibly the negativism of these and other pessimistic commentators have influenced the behavior of the quite in-grown gold share community.
There is a specter haunting gold and gold shares. (You have to be a product of the '60s to get the allusion) Do gold and gold shares predict? Don Hays, the Wall Street Triumphalist, whose technical work always merits serious attention, was provoked into an unusually prolonged discussion of the metal on Friday:
"It is my thesis, strictly by observing the long-term price action of gold when history tells us the Fed has either been too tight or too loose, that the price of gold in the range of $370-$400 is about right."
Why?
This, of course, is the manipulation-inviting type of reasoning which drives Bill Murphy's LeMetropole Café's readership into rage.
Martin Pring provides, perhaps, a more immediately useful investment perspective: "the Gold Bug Gold Share Index (HUI: news, chart, profile)... with a decisive daily close above 231, would be an excellent pointer that the gold price is about to make a new bull market high."
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0B4DF8BA%2D51C7%2D4974%2DAE42%2D72C67F4B59FD%7D&am...
=================================================================
And for anyone who was interested enough to get this far.......
The current HUI quote:
Index Value: 231.95
Trade Time: 12:22PM ET
Change: 3.43 (1.50%)
Prev Close: 228.52
Open: 228.52
Day's Range: 228.52 - 233.87
52wk Range: 114.06 - 258.60
Dan 
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