Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Yes, sometimes such external events have an impact on the map, sometimes they don't. The Saddam capture had no lasting impact, the fact that the Iraqi army collapsed last spring did have an impact and failure to anticipate that impact caused the turnips to err in the mid April to mid June period last year. Since my model has no way to quantify the impact of such external event, they simply disregard them until the technicals indicate that a change in direction was needed. We could have a situation just like last March, where due to such external parameters, the market is not let to develop the necessary extremes at the bottom in the next week or two. The lack of such extremes prevented them last March from calling anything but a mild run of 150 Naz points to 1400 by mid April 2003, (see the 2003 road map #msg-647289 I had 1263 as the March bottom occurring before 3/19 we hit 1253 on 3/9, but for a good two months in the spring, when 1425 was taken without improvement in internals, I just stayed "neutral" instead of bullish, of course, the turnips got quite a lot of heat for that erring and no kudos for calling the March bottom on the nose, price and time wise<g>).