Steve: Re. "So, I guess we build the kit that fits the Total Access 5000 and ship it all together to the carrier? Right?"
"I wish we knew more but that will be always the case, no?"
Well IMO, TXP is setting itself up to supply a ONT/NID for any optical transport platform to meet the various "deployment requirements" of the service providers. Hence the high degree of importance of interoperability with numerous OLTs. In my view it's all about opportunities that arise from these various deployments and as TXP investors we have the tendency to focus a little to heavily on FTTH.
Meeting "deployment requirements" is the operative phrase in my view because when looking at the global infrastructure there aren't too many VZ's or France Telecoms with the capital where with all to convert a copper fixed infrastructure to a all fiber FTTH infrastructure. IMO, there will be many different types of deployments consisting of variations of Copper, Fiber, COAX that in turn are based on BPON/EPON/GPON and DOCSIS for the cable companies and God only knows what else.
This is just my opinion but I have got to believe there is more to the Iphotonics acquisition than just ONTs. The significant increase in OPEX VS potential margins, not to mention the pain in the neck of general administration wouldn't make sense unless there were other opportunities involved. So what are these opportunities?
1. Meeting the needs of these various types of deployments on the termination end albeit a ONT/NID or hybrid device.
2. Existing opportunities: For instance we know that TXP incorporates a Home Phone Line Network (HPNAv3) interface for copper and a Multimedia over COAX (MoCA) interface for cable in their 7300 ONT aside from a straight GPON fiber application. Now with the evolution of Hybrid Flexible Fiber that Corning introduced last July existing MDU & MTU in large urban areas are more realistic for both phone and cable companies alike. Especially when you consider the recent FCC ruling that MDU & MTU are no longer a monopoly of the cable companies. Think about the telecom company being able to feed an entire high rise with the new advancements in optical cable into a TXP 7900 multiple rack mount ONT cabinet and routed through the building replacing the old COAX and phone lines with this hybrid fiber cable. Then having a single roof mount satellite dish or a telecom head end feeding the entire building not only for video but other applications as well.
3. Cable companies extending fiber from existing termination points at the pole directly into the home for a all hybrid FTTP application. This could be a future opportunity for 7200 Mini or hybrid ONT.
4. Existing termination or CPE that low cost modules would be simply replaced to accommodate future FTTH deployment.
5. Wireless is the major revenue driver for the large telecoms and I would bet that it will be a major part of the cable companies strategy whether it comes from GSM, WiFi/WiMax, satellite, etc.
6. Gateways to tie all all this technology together seamlessly and dispersing the appropriate bandwidth for each in house device.
Frankly I believe there are many current and future opportunities that TXP hopefully is availing themselves of other than pure FTTH and in that respect Adtran is certainly a nice partner to be working with. Re. TXP/TLAB PR only mentioned OSP's and in retrospect I can understand after spending a $B + for the acquisitions of AFC & Vinci but I would not be surprised that TXP is playing a role in their ONT development especially when it comes to MDU and MTU.
Re. "The bad news is that TXP will not generate big ONT revenue in the near future but like you said let's hope TXP is progressing with the NID box."
I have listened to or read the latest Q reports from TLAB, AT&T, Adtran etc. and would love to hear the latest from CALIX but being a private company they are very astute on a competitive level when it comes to PRing numbers and plays the game very well. We still do not know the types of relationships TXP has formed for example Occam/Calix and I am sure that they will be supplying equipment based on a myriad of service requirements as well. So it might be a bit premature for large ONT revenue in the classic ONT sense but FTTN certainly offers current opportunities for TXP whether it is a NID or a hybrid variation. Time will tell and we are still very early in the game, what keeps me interested in TXP is all the possible current and future opportunities that could play into TXP's business model.
jmack
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