No one said that this is not a good stock, question is if it is a great stock. My point has been that all of this cheerleading that some of you do is not helpful. At the end of the day, it is what it is, not what someone spins it to be. All investors are better off to look at reality and then decide what to do.
In our case, IF DEJ comes through as they are now saying, Peace River Arch is about 2x expectations. I said that I think that could reasonably lead us to a $5-6 price, except that the Piceance Uninta results could blunt that. But, say we only get half, that is still $2.5-3.0, or at least a double from here - IF we get those Peace River Arch results, which are looking better every day.
Simple fact is that Rio Blanco is a disaster if it comes out at anywhere near 800 mmcfd. The wells may be "economic" but that is likely only in the sense that we may eventually (3-4 years) get our money back, which you may as well do having gone this far. As to whether you do any more drilling based on these results - I doubt it. So, it does not matter how many sites they have, they picked the one that they thought was the best and are getting very poor results. Hence my comment that we need to hear from the company as to what they intend to do from here. Certainly, these results seem to take us from a potential $40-50/sh stock (if Piceance Unita was very good and exploration proceeded at a fast pace) to more of an upper limit of $5-6/sh. Still good, but not the retirement maker that we all hoped for and some will not want to make nearly as large an investment for a potential 4 bagger as they would have for a 30 bagger.
We just need real facts in a timely manner and I would suggest that all of you need to be as upset as I was about the delay in the Rio Blanco results. What good did that delay do us? None. What harm - company's credibility really was damaged by the way that they handled it. You NEED credibility when the news is not good, and they dont have it when we all need it the most. Best they can do now is give us a very clear plan for PU going forward - and do so quickly.
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