The Black Box

[mjk]

When I posted this several days ago, I was looking towards a lower trendline on the Nas daily, and where I thought some other stuff might line up.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2581407

Obviously, we didn't get as far as 1921, I thought it might take another day or two, making that a better target.

I said a couple days ago, I thought we'd see some obvious positive divergences at the low...we see them now on the short term stuff, but I meant something better, over a couple week period. But I also thought it was possible the low could end up being a V bottom. I've seen examples of both in cases similar to what type of period I think we're in now. So from here, I'd be looking for, if we get a retest or lower low than what we just got, those "positive divergences". Even if we get those on another low, doesn't mean we'll rocket, could just mean we're putting in the bottom or our range, and then we start trading sideways for a while, between the lows and 2153 or so. That's why I thought it was just a good idea to be adding under 1943, period. The upside would be if we do rocket to 2300+, we're that much better off for adding below 1943.

edit: when I say "positive divergences", I mean, in bottom forming periods similar to this, it's not uncommon to see a lower low a few weeks or more after a previous low, with some really obvious looking positive things happening. And it also is not uncommon to see these happen at the 200 day, or 300 day, depending on the situation. I think this case is unique in some respects, we should not get the 300 day, that would throw everything off, and the 200 day is still up in the air IMO. I don't think we get it yet, but I see just about everyone else on other boards calling for sub 1900, so maybe they're reading this better than I am. I still think it's more likely we get it in a few months, when it's above 1900, and until then, we stay pretty much under 2153 for the most part.