The Black Box

[wahz]

I can no longer add down here unfortunately, I have pumped all the cash I can reasonable handle at this since 1990 or so, to be able to maintain positions taken around there.

The prices are, across the board, lower than I would have expected, by perhaps even more than 15% on average, ie, I would have expected a neng floor at ~5, amcc ~6-6.20, cien ~6, vrts~30-32, etc

Its significantly uglier than I would have thought, with the nas just missing a 10% correction. It very much feels as if we have gone all the way back to last early last summer, and in many cases the prices have.

I have a still pretty small, but steadily growing probability of the correction not quite hitting the 200 day ma until next year and the chances that the 300 day gets missed have soared. Not tagging the 200 would be extraordinary. Basically, the brutaility in some segments of the market, has greatly diminished the odds of the averages needing to go to the 300 day. Yeah, that would be good news but we'll see.