Short Term Trading Member Forum

[arjunah]

aire, I checked the Cycle Course, it says waves that are topping and bottoming are to be ignored in determining trend. (ch. 10, p. 10.) So I should not have counted the 4.5Y as being down, since it is bottoming. The 9Y is topping, so it should also be ignored. I agree with you then that, if my phasing is correct, the short term trend underlying the 80W is flat.

My mistake was conceptual, thinking of cycles as half circles with rounded tops and spike bottoms, whereas, for purposes of assessing underlying trend, Hurst visualized them as sine waves with rounded tops and rounded bottoms, so that a cycle that was bottoming had no effect on the price action of smaller waves.

Thanks for the correction.