Short Term Trading Member Forum

[arjunah]

SPX: The 80W FLD had multiple downside breaks (in Nov and this month). The Nov. break projected down to 1320 and Jan's to 1270, so split the difference and say 1295 for the 18M/80W low, but it could be overshot because the short term trend (the influence of the 4.5Y and 9Y cycles) is down.

Now here's the scary part. The 54M FLD is near 1200 and rising steeply so by February it will be near 1250, just 20 points away from the low projection for the 80W. If the 54M FLD is broken at this level it projects down to below 950. (Hear that Bliss!)

Consider that the last time the 54M FLD was broken (early 2001) it was near the 1250 area and the SPX was coming down from its 1550 high in 2000. (Sound familiar!) The downside projection for this break was overshot when the SPX went below 800 in 2002.

The big difference between now and then is that there was still two years left in the 4.5Y cycle when the 54M FLD was broken. Now, that cycle has little time left. SPX 950 in February would be pretty ugly, to say the least.

Its possible we survive this 4.5Y without breaking the 54M FLD, in which case it would likely be broken in the next 4.5Y cycle and provide a projection for the next 9Y bottom.