Elmer:
Having been on major server installs to Fortune 500 companies like Ford, DuPont, Cargill and others. But Elmer who doesn't know what they do when they intend to buy a new server platform, doesn't realize the time to get through all of the testing they do. He must think that just because its another Intel CPU, that they do testing for a month and assume a whole bunch of stuff still works like it used to.
IT people are risk adverse. They would rather test and make sure, than to assume and get into trouble. If a mission critical server goes down, they can lose the company tens of millions of dollars every hour. They could not earn back that money, even if they worked their entire lives for the company. Thus they would be fired on the spot and never be back at that level again for another such company. Against that risk, would anyone not test throughly? Especially since they have to do it not just to hardware, but to software, procedures and people too.
Given that mindset, they don't trust their OEMs. They will get a new server in and still load it with their software and test it, then test it by running it in parallel to the old box and once they are convinced it works, transfer over to it. Even turn key systems (those provided by VARs to use for a single purpose) get installed, and go through about a month of testing by the customer on site with some of their people, take another week for training the rest of their people and a month or two in parallel before putting it into service. And those are tested by the VARs for two to three months before it is even installed (customizations to the software/hardware (assuming a known good platform and base code). If the VAR looks at a new platform (usually by customer request), they do a month or two of more testing with the ported base code which can take a week to six months depending on how different it is.
So either by VAR route or directly from the OEM, a year between purchase and install is typical. And it takes a while to just get them to sign, two to three months or testing various options. Sure they may be a few bought for that testing (but heavily discounted) on large buys, but typically less than a few percent. So the first year of a new server platform is mostly samples to the customers with a few pioneers in the mix. Its the second and subsequent years where the real purchases (volume) and profits are made for a new platform.
The C2D Xeon MP platform is only a few months old and won't make a dent in the market until Q4/08. But the 2nd gen (Rev F) Opteron platform is over a year now and is coming into its money years. By being plug ins, Barcelona will bypass much of the platform testing and go through about 3-6 months of testing as a new CPU, which the x347s and x350s are doing now. So the server market will be ready to do volume buys in Q1 or Q2/08. Socket 1207+ will go through that year worth of testing however. Its easier for IT when they need to change only one thing. That is why they like upgrades and grandfathering.
The trouble with Penryn and its siblings is that they need a new platform. Thats the trouble when each new Intel CPU requires a new chipset to work. A whole year of testing before its bought in volume rather than 3-6 months. And Nehalem is going to do it again. So even if its out in Q4/08, it won't be bought in volume until 2010. Even if Shanghai launches as late as Q1/09, it will be in volume by Q3/09 because its an upgrade and not a platform change.
Many people looking at the server market fail to remember the lags at the customer side have to be figured in. Getting a CPU launch faster does not mean faster uptake no matter how good it is. Requiring a chipset change as well as the CPU change, leads to 2-3 quarters of more delay. So a latter CPU in an existing platform will do better sooner than a earlier CPU in a new platform.
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