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Re: 3xBuBu post# 13156

Friday, 01/11/2008 11:33:00 PM

Friday, January 11, 2008 11:33:00 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 080111
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:10 pm : Friday was another disappointment for the bulls, marking the third straight weekly decline for the stock market. Stocks closed sharply lower on concerns that the credit crunch was affecting consumers.

American Express (AXP 43.91, -5.01) rang some warning bells after it increased its loan loss reserves due to an increase in defaults and slower card member spending. American Express will take a pre-tax charge of roughly $440 million, which dropped its earnings guidance well below expectations.

The announcement follows Capital One's (COF 12.64, -0.28) warning yesterday, when the company reduced its profit outlook due to increased loan delinquencies and additional legal reserves.

Many investors fear weakness in the consumer will push the U.S. economy into a recession. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said today the Fed's biggest worry is potential weakness in consumer spending.

This fear was exacerbated by overall disappointing same-store retail sales, which weighed on the consumer discretionary sector (-2.5%), and the S&P 500 Retailing Index (-3.2%).

In financial news, Bank of America (BAC 38.48, -0.82) is buying struggling mortgage lender Countrywide (CFC 6.36, -1.39) for approximately $4 billion in stock. Yesterday, reports that the two companies were in "advanced" talks sent the stock market higher.

The financial sector (-0.2%) outperformed on a relative basis as traders speculated on further industry consolidation and capital infusions.

Citigroup (C 28.56, +0.45) traded higher on speculation it will receive a cash infusion. CNBC reported the company is seeking $15 billion in capital from various sources.

Washington Mutual (WM 14.69, +0.53) closed on a postive note after CNBC reported that the company is in very preliminary talks to merge with JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.85, -0.48).

The New York Times reports Merrill Lynch (MER 54.69, +2.66) might write-down $15 billion in losses, which is almost double the company's original estimate. Merrill traded higher though, as the report also indicates the company is in discussions to raise about $4 billion.

Next week, financials will remain in focus. Several large banks will be reporting their earnings, including Wells Fargo (WFC 28.20, +0.29), JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch.

Nine of the ten sectors posted a loss, with only the defensive healthcare sector (+0.04%) eking out a slight gain. Telecom (-2.8%) was the main laggard. DJ30 -246.79 NASDAQ -48.58 NQ100 -2.1% R2K -2.2% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -19.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2166/852/2.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2028/1149/1.79 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices fall to fresh session lows as the market heads into the final half-hour of the trading week. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said "time is of the essence" in any stimulus package, according to Bloomberg.

This week has been volatile and disappointing to the bulls, with the S&P set to end down by about 1% and the Nasdaq down 2.9%. Telecom is the worst-performing sector with a 5.1% drop after AT&T's (T 38.00, -1.40) CEO warned of consumer weakness. Healthcare is set to finish up 4.8%, which makes it the leader. Financials are set to close with a small 0.1% gain after experiencing a number of large swings.DJ30 -274.02 NASDAQ -51.20 SP500 -20.98 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2151/833/1.83 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1966/1190/1.28 bln

3:00 pm : The major indices are trading at or near their worst levels of the session. The selling interest is broad-based, with the S&P Retailing Index (-3.3%) posting large losses.

Traders have upped their bets on the size of the Jan. 30 rate cut. Fed funds futures now suggest a 36% chance the fed will cut by 75 basis points, with the rest of the bets on a 50 basis point cut. This is up from last week, when futures pointed to a 34% chance of a 50 basis point cut, with the rest of the bets on a 25 basis point cut. The current Fed funds rate stands at 4.25%.DJ30 -250.69 NASDAQ -47.01 SP500 -19.12 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2012/956/1.64 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1892/1236/1.15 bln

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with significant losses. Financials (+0.4%) have recovered into positive territory.

355 stocks in the S&P 500 are trading lower. Google (GOOG 635.62, -11.11), American Express (AXP 43.55, -5.37) and Apple (AAPL 172.83, -5.19) are pacing the decline. CME Group (CME 615.68, +3.98), Bear Stearns (BSC 80.74, +3.31) and Range Resources Corp (RRC 52.96, +2.64) are seeing the most buying interest.

Shares of Tiffany & Co (TIF 35.62, -4.70) are getting pummeled after concerns related to a pullback in U.S. consumer spending prompted the company's management to reduce its fiscal 2007 outlook. DJ30 -232.40 NASDAQ -39.74 SP500 -15.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1989/954/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1933/1199/1.06 bln

2:00 pm : The stock market drifts lower as sellers remain in control. The financial sector (-0.1%) has fallen into the red, leaving only healthcare (+0.2%) in the green.

Market breadth is bearish. Decliners outpace advancers by a 3-to-2 margin on the NYSE, with new 52-week lows outpacing new highs by a 4.5-to-1 margin. On the Nasdaq, new lows outpace new highs by 2-to-1, with new 52-week lows outpacing highs by 11.5-to-1.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi asked to meet with President Bush to discuss a fiscal stimulus package that they want to pass "without delay" according to Bloomberg.DJ30 -245.3 NASDAQ -43.69 SP500 -17.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1958/975/1.39 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1858/1247/981 mln

1:30 pm : The major indices fall to fresh session lows as the financial sector (+0.2%) is unable to hold its gains. The market remains volatile as investors remain nervous about the future outlook. As equities slide, bonds strengthen. The 10-year note is up 18 ticks, sending its yield down to 3.82%.

The stock market is attempting to recover as selling pressure eases.DJ30 -209.23 NASDAQ -37.40 SP500 -14.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2898/1006/1.23 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1674/1438/862 mln

1:00 pm : Stocks pare some of their losses, although they continue to trade with substantial losses.

Fed Reserve Governor Mishkin is speaking on monetary policy, although he is not having much of an affect on the market since Fed Chairman Bernanke already spoke yesterday. Mishkin is a voting FOMC member in 2008. Like Bernanke yesterday, Mishkin is hinting toward a Jan. 30 rate cut.

He said that there are pronounced downside risk to growth and employment, and that the Fed must be ready to respond "flexibly." He stated inflation expectations are "reasonably well anchored." DJ30 -140.95 NASDAQ -23.33 SP500 -6.28 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1914/981/1.12 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1843/1261/792 mln

12:30 pm : Stocks fall back toward their session lows. Selling pressure has eased as the major indices hold near their recently reached lows.

Five of the 30 Dow Components are posting a gain. Some of the more beaten down names are outperforming, such as Citigroup (C 29.11, +1.00) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.81, +0.48). Citi is down 48% from its 52 week high, and JPMorgan is down 21%. The main laggards are American Express (AXP 44.19, -4.73) and McDonald's (MCD 53.62, -4.55)DJ30 -173.14 NASDAQ -30.71 SP500 -10.76 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1837/1029/993 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1702/1358/660 mln

12:00 pm : Stocks have had a bearish bias throughout the session after warnings from another credit card company fueled concerns that the subprime mortgage fallout may be weighing on consumers. The stock market is trading with a loss, but is off its session lows thanks to a turnaround in financials.

American Express (AXP 44.35, -4.57) increased its loan loss reserves to cover increased customer defaults and forecast a weaker operating environment in 2008, which is fueling fears that the housing crisis is starting to hurt consumers. Yesterday, Capital One (COF 43.32, +0.40) reduced its profit outlook due to increased loan delinquencies and additional legal reserves. The consumer finance group is down 5.4% on the news.

Topping headlines this morning, Bank of America (BAC 39.39, -0.04) is buying struggling mortgage lender Countrywide (CFC 6.60, -1.15) for approximately $4 billion in stock. Yesterday, reports that the two companies were in "advanced" talks sent the stock market higher, but the luster has worn off as both companies trade lower this session.

Despite the mostly negative reaction to the preceding news items, the financial sector (+1.4%) is providing leadership as traders speculate on further industry consolidation and capital infusions.

Washington Mutual (WM 14.51, +0.35) is catching a bid after CNBC reported that the company is in very preliminary talks to merge with JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.70, -0.63).

The New York Times reports Merrill Lynch (MER 54.47, +2.44) is expected to report $15 billion in losses, which is almost double it original estimate. Merrill is trading higher though, as the report also indicates the company is in discussions to raise about $4 billion to shore up its finances.

Citigroup (C 29.06, +0.95) is higher on speculation it will receive a cash infusion. CNBC reported there are rumors Prince Alwaleed may put $15 billion into the firm.

Eight of the ten sectors are trading in the red, as they did not see much buying interest as financials recovered. Consumer discretionary (-1.7%) is the main laggard on the disappointing same-store results and fears of a consumer slowdown. Telecom (-1.5%) is also a laggard.

In commodity trading, gold hit an all-time high of $900 per ounce, but has since eased a bit to $897.10. Crude oil is down 0.6% to $93.19 per barrel. DJ30 -140.46 NASDAQ -23.86 SP500 -6.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1761/1067/837 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1806/1218/576 mln

11:30 am : Stocks remain off their lows, but continue to trade in negative territory. The financial sector (+0.8%) is providing leadership after rebounding, but the other sectors have not followed suit as they remain in the red.

In the past half-hour, gold hit a new record high of $900 per ounce. Prices have since eased a bit, as gold trades up 0.6% to $899.70.DJ30 -149.32 NASDAQ -29.30 SP500 -9.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1922/866/704 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1902/1075/480 mln

11:00 am : Stocks are on the rise with relative strength seen in the financial sector (+0.2%). The major indices continue to trade with decent sized losses, but are well off their worst levels of the session.

17 of the 19 industry groups within the financial sector are now posting a gain, led by thrifts & mortgages (+2.8%). Citigroup (C 28.68, +0.57) has staged a striking turnaround as traders speculate that the company may receive a cash infusion. The consumer finance group (-6.6%) is off its lows, but continues to be under selling pressure after the American Express (AXP 44.18, -4.74) warning.DJ30 -137.62 NASDAQ -25.81 SP500 -8.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1910/825/548 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2061/865/359 mln

10:30 am : The stock market falls to fresh session lows before recovering a bit. Former Chicago Fed President Moskow said the Fed "clearly" has to understand risks are on the growth side, not inflation side, according to Reuters.

There are a few financial companies outperforming this morning despite credit concerns and overall weakness within the financial sector (-1.2%) and the 7.4% drop in consumer finance. Bear Stearns (BSC 79.99, +2.56) is trading higher after being upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch. Struggling bond insurer MBIA (MBI 15.75, +1.64) is trading higher on news that Third Avenue Management disclosed a 10.98% stake in the company and that Citigroup believes the company's capital plan should satisfy Fitch Ratings.

Washington Mutual (WM 14.51, +0.35) is catching a bid after CNBC reported that the company is in very preliminary talks to merge with JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.70, -0.63).DJ30 -165.50 NASDAQ -29.01 SP500 -13.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1851/754/338 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2048/764/200 mln

10:00 am : Stocks give up yesterday's gains as all ten sectors trade in negative territory.

Consumer discretionary (-1.6%) is leading the way lower. Telecom (-1.3%) is also a laggard with AT&T (T 38.50, -0.90) acting as the main drag. The company faces a possible unpaid wage and overtime call action lawsuit, according to Dow Jones.

Healthcare (-0.1%) and energy (-0.4%) are outperforming on a relative basis.DJ30 -144.85 NASDAQ -22.31 SP500 -11.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1705/682/137 mln

09:40 am : As expected, stocks open on a low note as credit concerns continue to weigh on sentiment.

This morning's top story was the confirmation that Bank of America (BAC) is buying struggling mortgage lender Countrywide (CFC) for approximately $4 billion in stock. Some traders have expressed disappointment that the price is only $4 billion.

Shares of American Express (AXP) are down nearly 12% after the company said it is boosting its loan loss reserves to cover an increase in customer defaults. Yesterday, Capital One (COF) reduced its profit outlook due to increased loan delinquencies and additional legal reserves.DJ30 -129.65 NASDAQ -20.66 SP500 -12.88

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.0. The market will have more Fed speak to digest today. New York Fed President Mishkin will speak on monetary policy at 12:45 ET. Boston Fed President Rosengren is set to speak at an economic outlook conference at 13:00 ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.5. Futures gain a couple of points, but a sharply lower open is still expected. There is more speculation that Wall Street banks will announce larger than expected write-downs. The New York Times reports Merrill Lynch is expected to report $15 bln in losses, which is almost double it original estimate. The report indicates Merrill is in discussions to raise about $4 billion to shore up its finances. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports Citigroup (C) may write down $16 bln, up from previous expectation of $11 bln. The companies are set to report their earnings next week. Bank of America (BAC) is now trading higher in pre-market as its conference call gets underway, while Countrywide (CFC) remains in the red.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.3. Futures have a mostly muted response to the trade balance report. The November trade deficit widened to a larger than expected $63.1 bln from $57.8 bln in October. Economists expected the deficit to increase to $59.5 bln, led by a large 10% rise in energy prices. Dell (DELL) is set to buck the negative trend and open higher after it was upgraded to Overweight form Neutral at JP Morgan.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.3. Futures are off their worst levels, but still point to a decidedly lower open for the stock market. Bank of America (BAC) has confirmed it is going to purchase Countrywide (CFC) in an all-stock transaction worth $4 billion. Both stocks are lower in pre-market trading. The Wall Street Journal reported the companies were in “advanced” talks yesterday, which caused the stock market to rebound into positive territory. American Express (AXP) increased its loan loss reserves to cover customer defaults, which is weighing on sentiment this morning. Yesterday, Capital One (COF) reduced its profit outlook due to increased loan delinquencies.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.0.

06:18 am : FTSE...6193.10...-29.60...-0.5%. DAX...7718.58...+5.49...+0.1%.

06:18 am : Nikkei...14110.79...-277.32...-1.9%. Hang Seng...26867.01...-363.85...-1.3%.






My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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