Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[basserdan]

From The King Report:

PPI Held Hostage, Day 22

Thursday’s retail sales report was the usual soft data that is uglier upon dissection, with incredulous components. Ex-autos, retail sales are flat. This is horrendous given the large tax refunds. The IRS reports the average tax refund so far is $2,182, up 4.4% from 2002…How in the heck are gasoline sales down in February, given the record prices? The upward revision in January retail sales is due to gasoline service station sales being revised from 2% to 2.8%. Merrill Lynch’s Amy Dickenson in her report "A Mixed Retail Sales Report But Clothing & Restaurants Are On the Leader Board (all dressed up with somewhere to go!)" notes housing-related sales are falling as are e-tailing sales. Ms. Dickenson also addresses questionable numbers: "…what was surprising was the 2.7% pop in motor vehicle sales which was the strongest performance in a year, even though we know from the previously released unit data that they were up less than 2% in the face of stepped-up discounting."

Speaking of bogus government economic statistics - Last week we noted Georgia’s low unemployment numbers and reasoned that the military buildup helped them. The Atlanta Constitution Journal reports that upon state review of actual jobs, the preliminary BLS jobs data is horribly wrong. The AJC’s Michael Kanell reports, "…2003 was tougher for job seekers than state officials had believed: Metro Atlanta ended the year with about 84,200 fewer jobs than first thought. Instead of enjoying an increase of 67,900 jobs during the year — which appeared to make the area a national leader in job creation — metro Atlanta actually lost 16,800 jobs, the Georgia Labor Department said Wednesday…One reason for the huge swing is that many companies that had gone out of business weren't counted in the initial survey, said John Lawrence, assistant director of work force information and analysis for the state Labor Department." This is precisely Alliance Capital’s Joe Carson warning about ISM’s bullish readings. The article also cites problems with BLS sampling methodology and notes the same evidence we have cited to refute econobulls: "Atlanta's apparent job growth had put it among the nation's leaders, yet other indicators — like income growth, commercial real estate vacancies and tax collections — had lagged."

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/0304/11jobs.html

The debate about payroll-household and accounting for self-employed or small business growth is moot because income data, IRS data and individual state data show little or no income growth. It is income that’s germane. There are numerous low or non-paying positions, especially re-tooled self-employed consultants and independent contractors. And as we’ve been preaching, as soft as income growth has been, in reality it’s worse because bubbles severely skew income distribution.