Monday, December 31, 2007 7:36:28 AM
brikk: I have to take issue with your chart, specifically the chart related to PPO.
You can not infer that a bottom has been put in from that chart. There is not enough information to draw that line moving up as you have done. That is pure optimism and is not based on the information available.
You can not draw a line that starts at the end of the graph and pick a direction because that suits your purpose. You must have points from the past that provide the slope of the line.
At this point in time the best that you can say is that the PPO is at a low. An uptrend in PPO has not been established. It is just as valid to speculate that it will go sideways or down from here - note that the positive scale goes to +20 while the negative scale only reaches -10. It will extend if it needs to.
Once the PPO chart turns up past -7 (the height of the last upturn the PPO made), then you can start to speculate about an uptrend.
In fact, the end of the PPO chart looks like it might be putting in a lower high (lower than -7) and is ready to turn down again.
But I do not have enough information to state that definitively.
Similarly, it is wrong to speculate about the MFI chart as you have. Is that chart also putting in a lower high at this point? You have extended the end of the chart up. That's OK because you have used points from the past. Just keep an eye on the line that you, yourself, have drawn. Will you be willing to accept that your uptrend has been broken if the MFI moves below that trend line?
Charts can keep us honest about the performance of our holdings, removing the emotion. But you have to accept what they are saying.
You can not infer that a bottom has been put in from that chart. There is not enough information to draw that line moving up as you have done. That is pure optimism and is not based on the information available.
You can not draw a line that starts at the end of the graph and pick a direction because that suits your purpose. You must have points from the past that provide the slope of the line.
At this point in time the best that you can say is that the PPO is at a low. An uptrend in PPO has not been established. It is just as valid to speculate that it will go sideways or down from here - note that the positive scale goes to +20 while the negative scale only reaches -10. It will extend if it needs to.
Once the PPO chart turns up past -7 (the height of the last upturn the PPO made), then you can start to speculate about an uptrend.
In fact, the end of the PPO chart looks like it might be putting in a lower high (lower than -7) and is ready to turn down again.
But I do not have enough information to state that definitively.
Similarly, it is wrong to speculate about the MFI chart as you have. Is that chart also putting in a lower high at this point? You have extended the end of the chart up. That's OK because you have used points from the past. Just keep an eye on the line that you, yourself, have drawn. Will you be willing to accept that your uptrend has been broken if the MFI moves below that trend line?
Charts can keep us honest about the performance of our holdings, removing the emotion. But you have to accept what they are saying.
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