Friday, December 28, 2007 10:20:01 AM
If you think so. 2008 I think is going to possibly be a big dissapointment for AAPL investors.
I was called out of my AAPL position last month. I was going over the entire trade on that. I originally bought 1000 shares pre-split. I shorted calls against it 52 times over the last 3 years. Only 6 of those I had to cover for losses. Needless to say, those short calls paid for the stock 12 times over.
But if you don't see the distribution in AAPL and RIMM right now, you're going to see the results. Earnings growth is a sales pitch by the Street to sucker in retail traders to push up the stock to allow them to bail when the price gets too high. By all metrics, AAPL is way ahead of itself. But that doesn't matter yet. It will. I'm not saying it won't go to $220. I'm saying that the money has been made in my opinion which limits any upside from here because anything AAPL does is priced in.
The iPhone can't come close to competing with RIMM or Samsung who own the market. It's just like Macs, it's a niche market limited to one carrier with most people not wanting to carry around a delicate, albeit very cool, toy. It's a very cool product, but has limited appeal. Not enough by any means to justify the stock much higher than it is.
The stock is purely trading on momentum and fear of shorts. But look at SIGM. That stock actually justifies a $70+ price on just pure valuation.
I was called out of my AAPL position last month. I was going over the entire trade on that. I originally bought 1000 shares pre-split. I shorted calls against it 52 times over the last 3 years. Only 6 of those I had to cover for losses. Needless to say, those short calls paid for the stock 12 times over.
But if you don't see the distribution in AAPL and RIMM right now, you're going to see the results. Earnings growth is a sales pitch by the Street to sucker in retail traders to push up the stock to allow them to bail when the price gets too high. By all metrics, AAPL is way ahead of itself. But that doesn't matter yet. It will. I'm not saying it won't go to $220. I'm saying that the money has been made in my opinion which limits any upside from here because anything AAPL does is priced in.
The iPhone can't come close to competing with RIMM or Samsung who own the market. It's just like Macs, it's a niche market limited to one carrier with most people not wanting to carry around a delicate, albeit very cool, toy. It's a very cool product, but has limited appeal. Not enough by any means to justify the stock much higher than it is.
The stock is purely trading on momentum and fear of shorts. But look at SIGM. That stock actually justifies a $70+ price on just pure valuation.
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