The Black Box

[mjk]

Not in this scenario, we'd spend a couple months bottoming around the 300 day, then rise back up over a few more months towards the middle of the range but not to new highs, then after one last bottom below the 300 day, take off again...this would basically start in '05. This would mean we'd be stuck in a range for months, starting from a first bottom in July. The final bottom would also get to that 1950-2000 area, then the '05 rally would be huge, another 50% min on the Nas.

This could all be invalidated tomorrow, I just haven't given up on it yet. The first bounce from the 100 day at 1991 looked fine, and so does this so far, we'd just need to bounce right around here, the 100 day again. We can break below it a bit, but I'd like a higher low than the 1991...then basically, in another week and a half to 2 weeks, we'll have taken out this morning's highs and be starting a strong rally into and thru April.

edit: I still like a bottom in July at 1955-65. So obviously, this could be proven wrong in a matter of days if this area is taken out.