The basic fundamentals is that the economy is still growing, corporate profits are still growing and interest rates are staying too low. In that environment, I think that if you go short based on fundamentals, while "you may right in the long run", you'll be dead in the next macro exuberance move. If you want to look at TA, watch the fact that AD lines are still healthy and lows are not expanding. Until these two turn bearish, I think that all the bears can expect is a modest retrenchment (I still have 1913 as nominal target less than 100 Naz points away). The quality of the next run will have a lot to say on the nature and timing of the relapse you expect, until I see the "colors" of that next ramp, it is difficult to be more precise as to the nature and depth of that next relapse. My ong term forecast has next year as very nasty and a potential 950 on the Naz sometime in the late 2005 early 2006 window. But can you wait with shorts through a ramp getting the naz above 2300 and the dow close to 12000?
