AI
Saturday, December 22, 2007 8:32:54 PM
MNTA: Quick primer: The first chart is from MNTA's website; the other two are from a Nov presentation. Why do I consider MNTA highly undervalued?
MNTA is currently pursuing 6 (that we know of) complex molecules with multi-blockbuster or near-blockbuster potential.
1. Generic Lovenox (w/Sandoz)
2. Generic Copaxone M356 (w/Sandoz)
3. Generic Fragmin
4. FoB M178 (w/Sandoz)
5. FoB M249 (w/Sandoz)
6. M118 Proprietary next-generation anticoagulant
A. Lovenox is awaiting resolution of the FDA's questions re immunogenicity. A prospective answer is imminent... good, bad, or neutral.
B. Copaxone ANDA is to be filed soon.
C. M118 is in PII (started Oct 2007) and represents a possible multi-blockbuster; additionally, MNTA has full rights to it.
D. Fragmin will be another ANDA at some juncture.
E. We can surmise from slide 3 below what M178 and M249 will probably be after Congress passes FoB legislation. Obviously, these will also pursue blockbuster markets.
(MNTA is also pursuing EU marketing, for at least, generic Lovenox. Should MNTA/Sandoz pursue FoB's in EU... that represents another available path w/o legislation.)
Summary: Any one of the above 6 molecules validates a much higher valuation for MNTA, especially considering today's cash balance of @ $140M, imo. Easiest to glean valuation insight from:
1. Lovenox ANDA status
2. M118 trial progress/results Mid-2008?
MNTA is currently pursuing 6 (that we know of) complex molecules with multi-blockbuster or near-blockbuster potential.
1. Generic Lovenox (w/Sandoz)
2. Generic Copaxone M356 (w/Sandoz)
3. Generic Fragmin
4. FoB M178 (w/Sandoz)
5. FoB M249 (w/Sandoz)
6. M118 Proprietary next-generation anticoagulant
A. Lovenox is awaiting resolution of the FDA's questions re immunogenicity. A prospective answer is imminent... good, bad, or neutral.
B. Copaxone ANDA is to be filed soon.
C. M118 is in PII (started Oct 2007) and represents a possible multi-blockbuster; additionally, MNTA has full rights to it.
D. Fragmin will be another ANDA at some juncture.
E. We can surmise from slide 3 below what M178 and M249 will probably be after Congress passes FoB legislation. Obviously, these will also pursue blockbuster markets.
(MNTA is also pursuing EU marketing, for at least, generic Lovenox. Should MNTA/Sandoz pursue FoB's in EU... that represents another available path w/o legislation.)
Summary: Any one of the above 6 molecules validates a much higher valuation for MNTA, especially considering today's cash balance of @ $140M, imo. Easiest to glean valuation insight from:
1. Lovenox ANDA status
2. M118 trial progress/results Mid-2008?
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