Catastrophic Stocks (Panic)

[TechKim]

Posted by: DewDiligence
In reply to: None Date:12/21/2007 12:45:24 AM
Post #of 56551
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25478370

Roche Encounters Dilemma As Bird-Flu Fears Fade

[A crude way to measure the fading attention to bird flu is the number of posts on iHub’s “Bird Flu: Science & Policy” board (#board-4506). During 2005 there were 100 posts per month, during 2006 there were 12 posts per month, and during 2007 there have been 2 posts per month!]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119820184702543895.html

>>
By JEANNE WHALEN
December 21, 2007

Two years ago, Roche Holding AG was under attack because it couldn't make enough Tamiflu, the drug seen as the best available treatment for avian flu. Now, bird-flu fears having subsided, Roche is having a hard time finding buyers.

Roche's reversal of fortune shows the difficulty of producing drugs that are used in times of crisis. When catastrophe seems imminent, production lines can't be expanded fast enough. But when the panic or problem passes, manufacturers are left with idle capacity.

This year, Roche estimates government orders for Tamiflu will be half what they were last year: 50 million packs, compared with 100 million in 2006. Tamiflu sales in the third quarter were down 60% from a year earlier to 257 million Swiss francs ($222 million). GlaxoSmithKline PLC, which makes a similar antiviral drug called Relenza, said that drug's sales fell 7% in the third quarter to £28 million ($55.9 million), "reflecting lower demand from governments to stockpile it for use in the event of a flu pandemic."

In an interview, David Reddy, who heads Roche's influenza-pandemic task force, said some countries have stopped ordering because they have already stockpiled enough. Others, he said, have become lax.

"Some really are in a very poor state of preparedness in terms of antiviral stockpiling, with very little or none," he said, noting that the drug will be in short supply again if a pandemic hits. "People think...if a pandemic hits, we can call 1-800-Roche and get our medicine. But that's not going to happen."

Some countries are very well-prepared -- France, the United Kingdom and Austria, for example, have enough antiviral medication stockpiled to cover more than 40% of their populations, according to Roche. The U.S. has stockpiled enough to cover more than 20% of its population. But Brazil, Italy and Greece have enough stockpiled to cover less than 10% of theirs.

Under pressure from governments and public-health officials two years ago, Roche went to great lengths to increase its production capacity. The Swiss drug maker can now produce 400 million packs of Tamiflu a year, seven times its capacity in 2005. The company will use less than half of that capacity this year: In addition to the 50 million packs for government stockpiles, it will produce 110 million packs for corporate stockpiles and regular seasonal-flu use. Tamiflu was originally developed as a treatment for regular flu.

For now, Roche is keeping its manufacturing capacity in place but will review the question every quarter. Dr. Reddy said it is "a challenge" to maintain the capacity, but he wouldn't comment on the cost, calling that "commercially sensitive."

The H5N1 virus is known to have infected 340 people and killed 209 since 2003, according to the World Health Organization. It mostly infects and kills birds, only occasionally spreading from birds to humans. For a human pandemic to occur, the virus would need to mutate and become easily transmissible among people. Public-health officials say that is still possible.
<<


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let’s talk biotech!
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”