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Re: 3xBuBu post# 12268

Monday, 12/17/2007 8:16:08 PM

Monday, December 17, 2007 8:16:08 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 071217
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:25 pm : The new week began much like the old week ended - on a decidedly lower note.

Today's downdraft was fed by familiar concerns related to the financial sector that were identified by Citigroup in a downgrade of multiple banking stocks that included Bank of America (BAC 41.70, -0.46), JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.53, -0.67) and US Bancorp (USB 31.81, -0.87) to name a few.

Separately, a Morgan Stanley downgrade of leading industrial company Caterpillar (CAT 71.16, -2.23) from Equal Weight to Underweight also weighed on the market as it played into concerns about a slowing pace of capital investment and global economic growth.

The Caterpillar downgrade overshadowed Ingersoll-Rand's (IR 43.68, -5.58) announcement that it is going to acquire Trane (TT 45.24, +8.04) for approximately $10.2 billion. That wasn't the only notable deal this Monday. National Oilwell Varco (NOV 70.69, -6.68) stepped up with a $7.5 billion offer to acquire Grant Prideco (GRP 53.91, +6.45), a recommended holding in Briefing.com's Active Portfolio that has gained close to 130% since its inclusion.

In keeping with the broader market mood, neither deal sparked much residual buying interest. In fact, the industrials (-1.7%) and energy (-2.1%) sectors were among today's worst-performing areas.

The materials (-3.1%) sector suffered the largest loss as growth concerns drove selling interest in the deep cyclical space. Technology (-2.1%) was another hard-hit area as large-cap components were targets for today's sellers.

Like Friday, there wasn't a single winner from a sector standpoint. The lack of leadership was evident in the major indices which, once again, finished basically at their lows for the day.

On a comparative basis, the financial sector (-0.9%) outperformed as gains in bond insurance companies MBIA (MBI 28.54, +0.94) and Ambac Financial (ABK 26.66, +3.85) provided a measure of support. Both companies benefited from news that Moody's decided to maintain their triple-A ratings.

Overall, though, winners were few and far in between. Decliners outpaced advancers at the NYSE and Nasdaq by a healthy margin. Losses in the equity market fed another flight-to-safety bid in Treasuries that saw the 10-year note jump 23 ticks and its yield fall to 4.14%.

A weaker than expected regional manufacturing report also provided a lift for the Treasury market. Before the open, it was reported that the New York Empire State Index showed a reading of 10.3 for November. While a number above zero reflects growth, the reading was well below the prior month's reading of 27.7 and the consensus estimate of 20.0. The market didn't show much reaction to the Q3 Current Account Deficit and October Net Foreign Purchases reports, both of which were better than expected.DJ30 -172.65 NASDAQ -61.28 NQ100 -2.5% R2K -2.0% SP400 -1.7% SP500 -22.05 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2348/615/1.93 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2594/594/1.39 bln

3:30 pm : Heading into the final half-hour of trading, the major indices are trading at, or near their worst levels of the session. Market volatility was higher today, as indicated by the 5.2% gain in the VIX.

Credit card processor MasterCard (MA 205.46, -11.10) and credit service company Capital One (COF 45.93, -1.27) are underperforming the financial sector and the broader market this session. Capital One was downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup. MasterCard is trading lower on reports that the European Union will rule on Wednesday that the company can no longer charge fees for international purchases.

Separately, Moody's is extending its rating review period for six Citibank-managed SIVs, according to Dow Jones.DJ30 -164.69 NASDAQ -54.62 SP500 -20.73 NASDAQ Vol 1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2516/647/1.02 bln

3:00 pm : The stock market's modest recovery efffort is short-lived, as the major indices hit fresh session lows. Treasury secretary Henry Paulson is currently speaking on the housing crisis at a "town hall" type setting in Orlando, Florida.

UBS sees $4 billion of credit losses on Ambac (ABK 26.65, +3.84) collateralized debt obligation exposures, according to Reuters. The news has not seemed to have put a damper on Ambac, which is up nearly 17% after Moody's reaffirmed its rating and gave a "stable" outlook.

In currency trading, the Dollar Index is basically flat. The dollar is up slightly against the euro, but down slightly against the yen. In commodity trading, the CRB Index is down 0.4%.DJ30 -153.50 NASDAQ -51.15 SP500 -18.31 NASDAQ Vol 1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2321/832/911 mln

2:30 pm : The major indices are off their lows of the session, but buyers are not showing much of a concerted interest. There has been a bearish bias throughout the session, as the stock market has not once reached positive territory.

United States Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said it is a "positive" that banks are taking structured investment assets onto balance sheets, according to Reuters. He also said turmoil in the credit markets, and the housing downturn will take time to work through.DJ30 -125.10 NASDAQ -42.86 SP500 -14.57 NASDAQ Vol 1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2383/760/810

2:00 pm : Another wave of selling interest drops the major indices to fresh lows. The Nasdaq Composite has been hit the hardest, as it is now down more than 1.7%.

77 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 are trading lower. Some of the large-cap names that have had the biggest runs this year are the main laggards, including Apple (AAPL 185.81, -4.62), Google (GOOG 677.26, -12.70) and Research In Motion (RIMM 102.14, -3.81). Apple, Google, and Research In Motion are up 124%, 50%, and 149%, respectively, year-to-date.

Fellow Nasdaq 100 stock Starbucks (SBUX 20.55, -0.66) is also a laggard today after being downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC.DJ30 -130.55 NASDAQ -43.44 SP500 -15.25 NASDAQ Vol 1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2242/870/736 mln

1:30 pm : The stock market falls to its worst levels of the session. For now, selling pressure has faded as the major indices hold slightly above their recently reached lows. Meanwhile, the financial sector (-0.1%) has joined the other sectors in negative territory.

Despite the 1.6% slide in crude oil, airlines are under selling pressure, as indicated by the 3.7% decline in the Amex Airline Index. 13 of the 14 stocks in the index are trading lower, led by an 18.5% fall in Mesa Air Group (MESA 3.64, -0.83). The AP reports that Mesa's motion for a new trial was rejected by a bankruptcy court judge.DJ30 -111.17 NASDAQ -35.69 SP500 -13.23 NASDAQ Vol 976 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2048/1071/661 mln

1:00 pm : After some choppiness, stocks gain some ground. Financials (+0.5%) continue to provide leadership, with the insurance broker group (1.6%) showing the most strength.

Insurance broker Aon (AOC 50.11, +1.17) is a standout after the company announced that it has signed separate definitive agreements to sell its Combined Insurance Co of America and Sterling Life Insurance. Aon also announced that it will devote the proceeds of these transactions to an increase in its previously authorized share repurchase program. The program will increase by $2.6 billion, bringing the total amount currently available for repurchase to approx $2.78 billion. The company's stock is up nearly 41% year-to-date.DJ30 -64.73 NASDAQ -25.26 SP500 -6.78 NASDAQ Vol 879 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2093/1012/603 mln

12:30 pm : The stock market pares some of its losses, but continues to trade significantly lower. The Nasdaq has seen the smallest amount of buying interest, and continues to trail the Dow and S&P 500.

Shares of Caterpillar (CAT 71.40, -1.98) are underperforming after Morgan Stanley downgraded the company to Underweight from Equal Weight. Of the 22 Dow Components trading lower, Caterpillar is the main laggard.

Merck (MRK 60.00, +0.42) and AIG (AIG 56.07, +0.42) are providing leadership.DJ30 -77.95 NASDAQ -29.77 SP500 -8.44 NASDAQ Vol 783 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2141/928/536 mln

12:00 pm : The stock market has remained in negative territory throughout the session, as negativity has carried over from last week. The major indices are all posting a loss, and are trading near their worst levels of the session. The Nasdaq is underperforming, as some large cap names, such as Apple (AAPL 186.75, -3.64), act as a drag on the Composite.

Financials have once again garnered the market's attention. Citigroup downgraded several banking stocks, reflecting its view that the group is likely to be flat/down over the next several months. The downgrades, however, have had a limited effect on the stock market as investors focus on news from Moody's Investor Service.

Moody's is reaffirming the debt ratings of several bond insurers, but is considering downgrades for others. Rating considerations have recently caused considerable concern among investors since a revision could implicate a slew of companies and potentially further depress the financial sector.

According to various publications, Moody's maintained its highest ratings on MBIA Inc. (MBI 28.58, +0.99) and CIFG Guaranty, but reduced both companies' outlook to negative. Moody's also left unchanged its highest rank for Ambac Financial Group (ABK 26.79, +3.98), and said it believes Ambac's outlook remains stable. Shares of the companies are moving substantially higher in today's trading as investors welcome the fact that no ratings were cut.

The outperformance of the bond insurers is aiding in the relative strength of the financial sector (+0.1%) this session. The sector stands alone in positive territory.

The energy sector, down 1.5%, is the main laggard, as it falls in conjunction with crude oil (-1.5% to $89.91). The tech sector (-1.3%) is also underperforming.

There are a couple of merger and acquisition news items of note. Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR 45.71, -3.47) will acquire Trane Inc. (TT 45.89, +8.69) for approximately $10.1 billion, including the assumption of debt, in a deal that would expand the diversified manufacturer's market position in heating and air conditioning systems. The offer price represents a 28.5% premium over Trane's closing price on Friday.

Oil equipment company National Oilwell Varco (NOV 70.88, -6.49) will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Grant Prideco (GRP 53.91, +6.45). Upon completion of the transaction it is anticipated that the current stockholders of National Oilwell Varco will own approximately 86% of the combined company and the current stockholders of Grant Prideco will own approximately 14%.

On the economic front, The NY State Empire Manufacturing Index came in at 10.3, which is less than the expected reading of 21.0. Any reading above zero is intended to reflect growth. DJ30 -84.46 NASDAQ -31.94 SP500 -9.84 NASDAQ Vol 669 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2068/953/450 mln

11:30 am : Stocks are back on the decline, as the underperformance of the heavily-weighted energy (-1.3%) and tech (-1.0%) sectors weigh on the broader market. The technology sector is especially weighing on the Nasdaq Composite, causing it to underperform the other major indices.

Treasuries are faring a bit better today than stocks. The 10-year note is up 10 ticks, pushing its yield down to 4.20%DJ30 -72.91 NASDAQ -27.93 SP500 -8.14 NASDAQ Vol 559 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1937/1036/372 mln

11:00 am : After some more choppy action, the major indices are largely unchanged from the last update.

The financial sector (+0.4%) stands alone in positive territory with ten of its 19 sectors posting a gain. The thrifts & mortgages (+1.6%) and insurance brokers (+1.6%) groups are providing leadership. Industrial REITs (-1.7%) and Retail REITs (-1.3%) are the main laggards.

In merger and acquisition news, Ingersoll-Rand Co. (IR 46.46, -2.72) will acquire Trane Inc. (TT 46.17, +8.97) for approximately $10.1 billion, including the assumption of debt, in a deal that would expand the diversified manufacturer's market position in heating and air conditioning systems. The offer price represents a 28.5% premium over Trane's closing price on Friday.

Oil equipment company National Oilwell Varco (NOV 69.61, +7.76) will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Grant Prideco (GRP 53.60, +6.14). Upon completion of the transaction it is anticipated that the current stockholders of National Oilwell Varco will own approximately 86% of the combined company and the current stockholders of Grant Prideco will own approximately 14%. DJ30 -55.84 NASDAQ -22.95 SP500 -6.34 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1794/901/405 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2108/816/279 mln

10:30 am : There has been some choppy action since the last update. The major indices hit fresh session lows, but have since recovered near their best levels of the session. The S&P Retailing Index (+0.5%) is showing some strength, led by a rebound in Target (TGT 52.46, +0.90)

Financials (+0.1%) continue to outperform the broader market. A CNBC anchor noted Morgan Stanley's (MS 50.11, -0.19) credit rating is to be reported on Wednesday, and said he is hearing the outcome is not looking that good for the company. The financial sector lost some steam after the report, but has since recovered into positive territory.
DJ30 -58.69 NASDAQ -22.73 SP500 -6.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1813/792/269 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2015/835/176 mln

10:00 am : The stock market is trading down roughly 0.7% with all ten economic sectors trading lower.

Materials (-1.2%) and energy (-1.3%) are the main laggards. Healthcare (-0.3%) is outperforming on a relative basis.

The financial sector (-0.3%) is managing to limit its losses thanks to strength in the insurance groups. Despite cautious remarks from Moody's, shares of bond insurers MBIA (MBI 28.59, +0.99) and Ambac (ABK 27.50, +4.69) are sharply higher. Presumably, investors are pleased that Moody's did not cut the insurers' ratings.DJ30 -86.24 NASDAQ -20.21 SP500 -10.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1654/748/94 mln

09:40 am : Stocks kick off the week on a modestly lower note as concerns over inflation and the credit markets carry over from last week.

Financials are poised to once again be the center of attention. Citigroup downgraded several banking stocks, reflecting its view that the group is likely to be flat/down over the next several months.

Meanwhile, Moody's sounds a cautious note on debt ratings for bond insurers, but does not yet lower credit ratings.DJ30 -55.44 NASDAQ -9.61 SP500 -7.20

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.3.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.3. Early indications continue to suggest a lower start for the stock market. Crude for January delivery is trading down 1.3% to $90.09 per barrel.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.8. Futures continue to point to a negative start after a muted reaction to a pair of economic releases. The NY State Empire Manufacturing Index came In at 10.3, compared to the expected reading of 21.0. Third quarter current account balance was $-178.5B. Last quarter's current account balance was $-188.9B.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0. Futures are off their worst levels of the session, but still point to a negative start. Carryover concerns about rising inflation, credit market turmoil, and a weak showing from foreign markets (eg. DAX -1.3%; Hang Seng -3.5%) are among the factors weighing on the futures market. A Morgan Stanley downgrade of Caterpillar (CAT) from Equal Weight to Underweight and some concerning comments from Moody's regarding bond insurers are also working to keep bullish enthusiasm in check. Also, Citigroup downgraded several banking stocks. Separately, there is a big deal getting done. Ingersoll-Rand (IR) announced that it will acquire Trane (TT) for $10.2 billion, or approximately $47.81 per share, which is nearly a 30% premium over Friday's closing price.

06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.3.

06:27 am : FTSE...6317.70...-79.30...-1.2%. DAX...7843.27...-105.09...-1.3%.

06:27 am : Nikkei...15249.79...-264.72...-1.7%. Hang Seng...26596.58...-967.06...-3.5%.





My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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