LOOKING BACK
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(Explanations are at #msg-2443566)
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NEW HIGHS NYSE NASD
02/25/04 130 103
02/26/04 199 121
02/27/04 279 148
03/01/04 473 251
03/02/04 368 211
03/03/04 224 141
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NEW LOWS NYSE NASD
02/25/04 6 9
02/26/04 4 5
02/27/04 2 5
03/01/04 5 5
03/02/04 5 10
03/03/04 5 9
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PUT/CALL RATIO
02/25/04 .460
02/26/04 .434
02/27/04 .553 low QQQ action
03/01/04 .412
03/02/04 .411
03/03/04 .515
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VOLUME FACTOR
02/25/04 .61
02/26/04 .63
02/27/04 .68
03/01/04 .63
03/02/04 .67
03/03/04 .63
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COMPOSITE DAILY 10DMA
02/25/04 -884 3706
02/26/04 4499 2318 positive and above falling 10DMA
02/27/04 8035 2061
03/01/04 14495 3067
03/02/04 9071 2786
03/03/04 7606 2743
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CUM RANGE VALUE
02/25/04 -774
02/26/04 929
02/27/04 2218
03/01/04 5263
03/02/04 2562
03/03/04 2047
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DIA INDEX POWER STRENGTH
02/25/04 106.19 .26% .00
02/26/04 105.94 .06% -.09
02/27/04 106.07 .12% -.08
03/01/04 106.96 .74% .14
03/02/04 106.10 .03% -.24
03/03/04 106.03 -.03% -.27
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QQQ INDEX POWER STRENGTH
02/25/04 36.58 -1.34% -.20
02/26/04 36.67 -1.17% -.15
02/27/04 36.57 -1.44% -.21
03/01/04 37.05 -.44% .09
03/02/04 36.62 -1.42% -.18
03/03/04 36.42 -1.84% -.31
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TRIN Bretz TRIN-5
02/25/04 .78 5.82
02/26/04 .90 5.77
02/27/04 1.32 5.60
03/01/04 .69 5.08
03/02/04 1.36 5.05
03/03/04 .98 5.25
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TRINQ Bretz TRINQ-5
02/25/04 .76 6.89
02/26/04 .68 5.20
02/27/04 1.38 5.53
03/01/04 .52 4.37
03/02/04 1.35 4.69
03/03/04 1.14 5.07
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NASDAQ INDEX POWER
02/25/04 2022.98 -1.49%
02/26/04 2032.57 -1.18%
02/27/04 2029.82 -1.38%
03/01/04 2057.80 -.36%
03/02/04 2039.65 -1.15%
03/03/04 2033.36 -1.41%
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DJ-30 INDEX POWER
02/25/04 10601.62 .28%
02/26/04 10580.14 .10%
02/27/04 10583.92 .10%
03/01/04 10678.14 .76%
03/02/04 10591.48 .05%
03/03/04 10593.11 .05%
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DJ Bonds INDEX POWER
02/25/04 178.73 .45%
02/26/04 178.40 .35%
02/27/04 178.86 .51%
03/01/04 178.83 .46%
03/02/04 178.32 .19%
03/03/04 178.15 .09%
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US Dollar INDEX POWER
02/25/04 87.21 .73%
02/26/04 87.66 1.10%
02/27/04 87.30 .68%
03/01/04 87.42 .77%
03/02/04 88.90 2.02%
03/03/04 88.92 1.89%
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HUI INDEX POWER
02/25/04 221.67 -2.68%
02/26/04 223.06 -2.12%
02/27/04 224.80 -1.32%
03/01/04 227.28 -.42%
03/02/04 220.71 -2.67%
03/03/04 222.55 -1.65%
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NYSE INDEX POWER
02/25/04 6670.27 .73%
02/26/04 6677.66 .76%
02/27/04 6692.37 .84%
03/01/04 6766.56 1.60%
03/02/04 6717.13 .90%
03/03/04 6718.22 .85%
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S&P 500 INDEX POWER
02/25/04 1143.67 .52%
02/26/04 1144.91 .54%
02/27/04 1144.94 .46%
03/01/04 1155.97 1.13%
03/02/04 1149.10 .56%
03/03/04 1151.03 .63%
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McClellan INDEX
02/25/04 1308.87
02/26/04 1263.95
02/27/04 1260.73
03/01/04 1322.21
03/02/04 1341.22
03/03/04 1347.02
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VXN INDEX POWER
02/25/04 23.55 -.60%
02/26/04 23.10 -1.88%
02/27/04 22.84 -2.37%
03/01/04 22.54 -3.11%
03/02/04 22.42 -3.25%
03/03/04 23.09 -.74%
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VXO INDEX POWER
02/25/04 14.99 -5.19%
02/26/04 14.65 -6.60%
02/27/04 14.76 -5.28%
03/01/04 14.18 =8.20%
03/02/04 14.60 -5.16%
03/03/04 14.61 -4.81%
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XGLD INDEX POWER
02/25/04 395.25 -2.67%
02/26/04 394.70 -2.66%
02/27/04 396.02 -2.18%
03/01/04 398.81 -1.57%
03/02/04 393.05 -2.69%
03/03/04 392.01 -2.73%
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XOI INDEX POWER
02/25/04 586.87 1.69%
02/26/04 589.19 1.89%
02/27/04 593.42 2.30% up 40% in a year
03/01/04 606.58 3.76%
03/02/04 597.32 2.36%
03/03/04 598.43 2.40%
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10 INDICATORS
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02/25/04 9 of the 10 ticked up, only McClellan was weaker
02/26/04 just like yesterday
02/27/04 all except McClellan are up to or through their 10DMA
03/01/04 they sure look good
03/02/04 all except McClellan show minor downticks.
03/03/04 4 of the 10 were flat, the rest edged down a trifle.
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SUMMARY OF IMPRESSIONS FROM "LOOKING BACK" (above)
==================================================
03/03 The indices and the volumes indicate a stand-off day
on a little lower volume, but the COMPOSITE and CUMULATIVE
RANGE suggest the market is a bit weaker. So far, the bond
index has been unable to get above 179 and it has made about
3 tries. The dollar index ran up but gave it all back.
McClellan halted its plunge about 5 days ago but it could
resume as it did in Mid-Februrary. What does it mean?
Darned if I know. XGLD and XOI were steady.
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03/02 DIA and QQQ made a 2-day round trip and the downstroke
was on higher volume than the upstroke. That's not
encouraging. TRIN/TRINQ were up, but aren't alarming.
Today's pull-back leaves the POWER numbers for NASD and
NYSE in a marked downtrend, even though NYSE is still
positive. The dollar index was uncommonly strong, closing
at its highest point since mid-December. This was
accompanied by a slight fall in the bond index. VXN/VXO
aren't showing any alarm. XGLD took a pretty good hit but
held above 390. XOI held onto a portion of yesterday's surge.
We may be going down but there's no reason to panic, yet.
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03/01 The composite and cumulative range both show excellent
strength. DIA and QQQ had unusually good days. Both closed
around their highs ... but on lower volume which makes the
move suspect. The dollar index was steady. WHEW! NYSE and
S&P 500 had a good day, but, again, lower volume. I still
think this marks a move to big-caps, even though NASD did
well, too. VXO fell, which seems to confirm this notion.
SHEESH! XOI is headed for the moon.
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02/27 Neither DIA nor QQQ set the world on fire. Both TRIN
and TRINQ were fairly high at the close. What strength
there was in the indexes was in the NYSE which was up on
higher volume. The bond index is within 8 cents of a new
high. The dollar index was fairly steady. Volatility
seems to have fallen slightly. We noticed light volume
in options, particularly QQQ, but have no idea what that
means. XGLD, like the dollar, was steady. XOI was strong.
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02/26 There wasn't much change in the market's tone today, but
it's worth noting that DIA weakened just a touch while QQQ
strengthened by an equally weak increment. This is
interesting because it is a reversal of what we've been
seeing. However, the amounts are too small to really be
significant, and volume is still modest. TRIN/TRINQ are
settling back down. NASD shows a trifle more strength than
NYSE. The DJ Bond index is still in a slow uptrend. The
dollar index moved up again. Could this indicate
anticipation of an interest rate increase? Probably not.
If that were true, it wouldn't make sense for the bond index
to move up. McClellan is reaching a point that held in early
October and late November. VXN/VXO are back in complacency
territory. XGLD was steady. XOI continues its advance.
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02/25 TRIN and TRINQ mellowed a bit. Actually, the whole
downthrust did, but volume was lower so it's not that
impressive. The dollar index was strong. It regained
what it lost yesterday and a bit more. VXN and VXO both
fell back. XGLD fell as we might expect with the dollar's
rise. XOI continues its advance. None of this stuff
suggests panic is imminent.
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AI
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