A couple of insights
The first reason why the stock price is low is that we will have to go back to the markets to raise cash in the next 2 years and we don't know if good news will be in hand at that time (either due to a delay or other bad news).
The second reason why the stock price is low is that there is a poison pill in place that removes the control premium from the value of shares traded day to day.
Regarding the first reason, one problem GTC Bio stock price now is that there is a short window of time prior to running out of cash (mid 2009 according to CFO) so if there are significant delays or bad news in both of the next two most important news items, control or at least significant dilution of the company is possible. Even in the best case: 1st- GTCB would have good news on one or both main items eventually (US AT3 approval/DTC Phase II results...80% probability of US AT3 approval/50% probability of DTC Phase II good results), 2nd-the news would come on time (the probability of that is about 50% for each item in my optomistic opinion given the huge delay in the Euro approval and the current delay in the DIC enrollment). If 1 and 2 happen, the stock price would rise, but it might not rise very much because even then a cash raise and associated dilution would still be needed and who knows if at any moment our former Genzyme management would agree to sell out to Genzyme for $3.50 a share (probability about 30%+ if there is good news).
Regarding the second reason: Don't forget the poison pill in place that no-one else seems to like to talk about very much. Most people know that poison pills kill the ability of an unfriendly takover, leaving almost all the control premium out of the value of each share that trades day-to-day and leaving a potential buyer up to the discression of management. Here is what I believe is an unfortunate consequence our shareholders have already experienced, when the French firm got its large piece of GTCB it paid no control premium but still got a large enough piece to get a seat on the board, far from total control, but still paid not a penny more than the average Joe's market price of stock. Not paying a penny more is ok, but not if the control premium is gone. All the shareholders keep getting watered down with managment selling more shares than they would otherwise have to because the stock price is so low without the control premium built into it.
So basically, everyone knows there is lots of untapped value in the company, but what is unclear is 1) when the company will start making lots of money 2) will the average joe share-holder get fairly rewarded for the risk taken. The low stock price says no to #2. I could venture to guess that the low stock price is also a "safer" price for the holder though since I can't imagine it going much lower. The only thing is, the lower the price, the more likely that Genzyme will snap this up at around 3x the going price because the total value is so low so it is a no brainer. So I am worried it is a self fulfilling problem. We need to get rid of the poison pill to get at least some of the control premium back into the stock price because it looks like we need to go to market to sell stock to get more money in the next couple of years. If we were at $10 a share it would take more than a moment for Genzyme to raise the cash. I'm telling you, the poison pill both saves the company for Genzyme and lowers the price for Genzyme. It also cuts the shareholder out of the profits by maximizing dilution because the lower the price, the more shares need to be issued to raise cash. Of course we also get cut out of profits if Genzyme buys the company for a song prior to the company reaching profitability. At a few dollars a share plus either good DIC or US AT3 results, Genzyme's management would call Dr. Cox and I would not be surprised if Dr. Cox would let Genzyme have verbal go ahead and start writing a press release to own GTCB for 3x market price a share the same day over lunch. I'm sure they would delay the press release a bit to make it look better like they were not planning it all along.
Finally, it seems like the probability of DIC approval for AT3 is the largest single product related opportunity. We have a paper that I gave to Dew over a year ago that has data from hundreds of people using AT3 for DIC. The results are great but I am not an expert on this sort of thing. This is on the read me first. The most feedback I have heard about this paper is that it looks promising and that the probability of approval is up over 50%. Is anyone willing to read the paper and share more detailed insights?
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