AI
Saturday, February 28, 2004 1:30:19 PM
CYCLE Turn on/around March 5th
Well it looks like we have gotten our cycle turn that was scheduled for around the 26th and as it goes, a day early at that. Feb 25th was the first up day in some 5 sessions or so followed by an up day on the 26th and finishing flat on Friday the 27th.
Of the economic data presented, most of it was not very good; Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods and Housing Sales were all down. GDP was revised upward by a whopping 0.1%, but that's better than revising downward to the expected 3.7% level. I had also heard that average home cost was up to something like $269K and that rental vacancies were up to something like 7.9% (don't hold me to those numbers, but they were in that neighborhood). Then everybody's favorite Fed Chairman presented us with news that was an awakening for some and an echoing for others. Personally I am surprised they have not touched on these issues sooner, namely debt and out of control spending. FNM and FRE have been lending money on a whim and record high dual debt deficits are threatening our recovery. Gee what a shock and they are just noticing now? I won't go into the Social Security thing, but I am sure plenty are outraged and this Administration and Fed Chairman should be ashamed of themselves for not taking care of the peoples business first and foremost. Take care of the people and the economy will follow, not the other way around (let's leave it at that).
Anyway, we are not expecting another cycle turn until around March 5th with a mini turn to follow on the 10th. While I am not sure how we will handle these (never am), it looks to me like we are oversold and should move higher over the next week. How high is anybody's guess, but I believe we need to break 2050 and above the 50DMA first on the COMPQ before we can see if this move up is for real. Next test would be 2100 if we are even going to try and attempt new highs. That seems like a lot to ask for by next Friday, but let's play it by ear and see what materializes...
The current set-up looks similar to that of what we saw back in July-Aug '03. It will be interesting to see if whether or not there is enough juice left in the tank to pull out of this downtrend... Bullish flag or pennant anyone?
Well it looks like we have gotten our cycle turn that was scheduled for around the 26th and as it goes, a day early at that. Feb 25th was the first up day in some 5 sessions or so followed by an up day on the 26th and finishing flat on Friday the 27th.
Of the economic data presented, most of it was not very good; Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods and Housing Sales were all down. GDP was revised upward by a whopping 0.1%, but that's better than revising downward to the expected 3.7% level. I had also heard that average home cost was up to something like $269K and that rental vacancies were up to something like 7.9% (don't hold me to those numbers, but they were in that neighborhood). Then everybody's favorite Fed Chairman presented us with news that was an awakening for some and an echoing for others. Personally I am surprised they have not touched on these issues sooner, namely debt and out of control spending. FNM and FRE have been lending money on a whim and record high dual debt deficits are threatening our recovery. Gee what a shock and they are just noticing now? I won't go into the Social Security thing, but I am sure plenty are outraged and this Administration and Fed Chairman should be ashamed of themselves for not taking care of the peoples business first and foremost. Take care of the people and the economy will follow, not the other way around (let's leave it at that).
Anyway, we are not expecting another cycle turn until around March 5th with a mini turn to follow on the 10th. While I am not sure how we will handle these (never am), it looks to me like we are oversold and should move higher over the next week. How high is anybody's guess, but I believe we need to break 2050 and above the 50DMA first on the COMPQ before we can see if this move up is for real. Next test would be 2100 if we are even going to try and attempt new highs. That seems like a lot to ask for by next Friday, but let's play it by ear and see what materializes...
The current set-up looks similar to that of what we saw back in July-Aug '03. It will be interesting to see if whether or not there is enough juice left in the tank to pull out of this downtrend... Bullish flag or pennant anyone?
**Happy Trading**
Your Economy #board- 1948
Discover What Traders Are Watching
Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
