Biotech Values

[jbog]

North,

I think i came up with close to $64 billion dollars of blockbusters going off patent within 4 years. In my view there's nothing out there that could possibly make up for this, let alone make up for the profit gap. The drugs approaching patent expiration are hugely profitable.

I see no reason why any of these companies would merge because combining 2 dying companies still gives you a dying company. I can't see why anyone would buy Biogen because it's products have their own lifecycle which is approaching.

You have to keep in mind that we're approaching the patent life of drug classes not individual products per se. The Beta's, Statins and ESA's are all coming to a end. When a company like Amgen derives 50% of it's sales and 60% of its profits from one class it's almost impossible to make-up.

So here's what we should look for, the next "class" of drugs. I'll guess that the most recent class is the "angiogenesis/vegf" drugs. We know that avastin is the leader but soon sutent and nexavar will be prominent players.

So what "class" would you guys suggest is coming down the road? Possibly Igf-1r?

tia