Biotech Values

[jbog]

The Future of The Large Caps.

While this board doesn't get involved into the large cap pharma arena I usually do a yearly review looking for any hints going into the new year.

While my opinion has been declining in recent years, my recent review is that there's not a life ring large enough that'll save the majority of these companies.

JNJ will continue to be solid because of it's diversafication and Merck has made a nice turnaround. Lilly, Schearing and Wythe will be sucking wind for a long time. I'm not sure Lilly will weather the storm, which is a absolute change within 3 years.

Bristol, Glaxo and Novartis should keep their head above water.

That leaves us the #2 company Pfizer. After days of thinking of what they can do to address their future I only come up with one logical decision. Buy Teva in 2008 and then possibly spin a portion of it off, retaining 51% at a minimum. It has no other options.

After these companies get decimated within the next 4 years then it's Amgen's turn at the gallows.


(Disclosure; long Teva)