LOOKING BACK
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(Explanations are at #msg-2443566)
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NEW HIGHS NYSE NASD
02/13/04 245 156
02/17/04 379 222
02/18/04 265 208
02/19/04 233 178
02/20/04 98 89
02/23/04 116 95
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NEW LOWS NYSE NASD
02/13/04 4 4
02/17/04 4 8
02/18/04 3 7
02/19/04 4 8
02/20/04 7 14
02/23/04 9 11
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VOLUME FACTOR
02/13/04 .63
02/17/04 .60
02/18/04 .63
02/19/04 .72
02/20/04 .68
02/23/04 .67
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PUT/CALL RATIO
02/13/04 .487
02/17/04 .585
02/18/04 .506
02/19/04 .434
02/20/04 .542
02/23/04 .456
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COMPOSITE DAILY 10DMA
02/13/04 4443 5394
02/17/04 11878 6311
02/18/04 8035 6940
02/19/04 1146 7966
02/20/04 -2858 8043
02/23/04 -7101 6541
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CUM RANGE VALUE
02/13/04 1525 a nice quiet descent
02/17/04 4616
02/18/04 3026
02/19/04 1120
02/20/04 -948
02/23/04 -4109 so much for "quiet"
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DIA INDEX POWER STRENGTH
02/13/04 106.70 .89% .19
02/17/04 107.51 1.42% .45
02/18/04 107.17 1.10% .34
02/19/04 107.10 .96% .30
02/20/04 106.42 .44% .08
02/23/04 106.23 .30% .02
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QQQ INDEX POWER STRENGTH
02/13/04 36.94 -.46% -.31
02/17/04 37.44 .57% -.07
02/18/04 37.55 .68% .17
02/19/04 36.98 -.67% -.12
02/20/04 36.86 -.91% -.22
02/23/04 36.45 -1.72% -.41
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TRIN Bretz TRIN-5
02/13/04 1.30 5.19 5-day high
02/17/04 .71 4.74
02/18/04 1.11 4.68
02/19/04 .95 5.06
02/20/04 1.49 5.56 working its way upward
02/23/04 1.21 5.47
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TRINQ Bretz TRINQ-5
02/13/04 1.36 5.39
02/17/04 .64 4.80
02/18/04 .93 4.94
02/19/04 2.37 6.36 anxiety spike?
02/20/04 1.05 6.35
02/23/04 1.68 6.67
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NASDAQ INDEX POWER
02/13/04 2053.56 -.25%
02/17/04 2080.35 .73%
02/18/04 2076.47 .47%
02/19/04 2045.96 -.83%
02/20/04 2037.93 -1.11%
02/23/04 2007.52 -2.22%
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DJ-30 INDEX POWER
02/13/04 10627.85 .72%
02/17/04 10714.88 1.32%
02/18/04 10671.99 .93%
02/19/04 10664.73 .80%
02/20/04 10619.03 .45%
02/23/04 10609.62 .36%
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DJ Bonds INDEX POWER
02/13/04 187.06 4.13% (this may be a data error!!)
02/17/04 178.49 .29%
02/18/04 178.65 .32%
02/19/04 178.62 .53%
02/20/04 177.97 .22%
02/23/04 178.42 .40%
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US Dollar INDEX POWER
02/13/04 85.55 -.80%
02/17/04 84.96 -1.32%
02/18/04 85.94 -.36%
02/19/04 85.93 -.35%
02/20/04 87.14 .69%
02/23/04 86.91 .43%
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HUI INDEX POWER
02/13/04 234.04 .62%
02/17/04 242.03 3.23%
02/18/04 230.55 -.63%
02/19/04 229.83 -.82%
02/20/04 222.30 -3.16%
02/23/04 217.10 -4.81%
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NYSE INDEX POWER
02/13/04 6691.40 1.53%
02/17/04 6770.27 2.33%
02/18/04 6719.14 1.61%
02/19/04 6715.29 1.43%
02/20/04 6676.71 .95%
02/23/04 6665.50 .77%
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S&P 500 INDEX POWER
02/13/04 1143.23 1.09%
02/17/04 1156.99 1.77%
02/18/04 1151.82 1.31%
02/19/04 1147.06 .88%
02/20/04 1144.11 .66%
02/23/04 1140.99 .42%
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McClellan INDEX
02/13/04 1882.60
02/17/04 1903.26
02/18/04 1872.70
02/19/04 1795.51
02/20/04 1677.93
02/23/04 1525.27
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VXN INDEX POWER
02/13/04 24.14 1.67%
02/17/04 23.87 .75%
02/18/04 23.73 .28%
02/19/04 24.24 2.05%
02/20/04 24.12 1.63%
02/23/04 24.38 2.29%
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VXO INDEX POWER
02/13/04 15.63 -1.18%
02/17/04 15.56 -1.82%
02/18/04 15.74 -1.09%
02/19/04 16.90 4.20%
02/20/04 16.25 .80%
02/23/04 15.93 -.97%
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XGLD INDEX POWER
02/13/04 409.66 -.29%
02/17/04 415.39 .77%
02/18/04 411.73 .04%
02/19/04 409.19 -.47%
02/20/04 397.00 -2.73%
02/23/04 398.43 -2.19%
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XOI INDEX POWER
02/13/04 578.53 1.36%
02/17/04 584.31 2.02%
02/18/04 579.04 1.22%
02/19/04 580.40 1.30%
02/20/04 581.59 1.40%
02/23/04 585.33 1.76%
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10 INDICATORS
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02/13/04 edged down a bit, but 4 of 10 didn't make it to 10DMA
02/17/04 they all ticked up but are not overpowering.
02/18/04 ticked down, some without reaching earlier highs
02/19/04 all down to or below their 10DMA
02/20/04 they're all falling at a modest pace
02/23/04 they're continuing their fall
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SUMMARY OF IMPRESSIONS FROM "LOOKING BACK" (above)
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02/23 DIA and QQQ were not excessively grim. DIA is still
above mid-point and QQQ closed near the bottom of its range.
The cum range is approaching the lowest we've seen but we
don't have enough data for that to be significant unless
this level marks a turning point (as it has three times
since last July). TRIN was subdued, but TRINQ shows anxiety.
NASD's POWER30 number fell sharply but NYSE held up much
better. I think these things suggest rotation more than
bearishness. The dollar index was steady. McClellan plunged.
VXN was up and VXO was steady. XGLD rebounded slightly and
XOI is close to breaking out again.
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02/20 Today's hit was more on DIA than on QQQ. Given the
strength we've seen in NYSE and weakness in NASD, I'm
inclined to say today's action is more expiration-related
than an indication of a trend change. It seems to me that
TRIN/TRINQ suggest the same thing. The dollar index was
up sharply today making the second strong up day in the
past three. In three days, it has recovered the losses
of 10 days. McClellan is accelerating to the downside.
Although I've lost some faith in this guy, it has a bearish
cast right now. VXN is fairly steady but VXO is working its
way north, possibly showing growing anxiety. XGLD fell a
bunch today, which corresponds with the improvement in
the dollar index.
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02/19 DIA held up pretty well while QQQ performed poorly. Our
POWER30 numbers show marked weakness in NASD and equanimity
on NYSE. It looks like today's sell-off was concentrated
on NASD. The dollar index was steady. McClellan may have
started falling again. XGLD was down a bit.
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02/18 NASD has been in a fairly tight range for the past 5-6
days and seems unable to get much above that 2088 line in
the sand. Volume has been pretty static, too. DJ-30 also
looks like it's rolling over (partly based on WB's TSV).
The dollar index rallied quite strongly today, up almost
a buck. The NYSE chart looks stronger than NASD and DJ30,
but TSV is weakening here, too. XGLD weakened but is not
alarming (yet).
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02/17 We may be about to get some insight into the impact of
volume. Everything we have is very strong today, but we
know the volume was down a bit. That may turn out to be
significant. We had strong jumps in our POWER30 numbers
BUT neither NASD or DJ30 made it through their recent highs.
Whatever happened with the bond index corrected itself
today (my guess is bad data). XGLD had a good day and
its techs look fine, including weekly. XOI resumed its
upmove.
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02/13 NASD POWER30 number was down quite sharply and went
negative. The NYSE, on the other hand, held up pretty
well. VXN/VXO are turning up again, suggesting anxiety.
XGLD looks like it was quite volatile today. It gave
back $3.44.
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02/12 DIA held pretty steady but QQQ gave yesterday's gains back.
NASD has given back all the POWER30 gains of the past two days.
NYSE held up fairly well. The dollar index stopped its 7-day
fall. NYSE consolidated and held well above Tuesday's breakout
level. XGLD was (I'd say) suprisingly strong and it DW techs
are excellent. XOI consolidated.
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02/11 Our POWER30 numbers are showing increasing strength.
The DJIA was up sharply and closed at a new high with
good-looking techs. The bond index downtrend mentioned
a few days ago broke today. The dollar index fell quite
sharply. The NYSE was VERY strong on high volume.
Yesterday's breakout looks like a trigger. VXN/VXO
continue their fall into complacency. XGLD was up and
its techs improved. XOI was up sharply to a new high.
This is a major change in sentiment in the past three days.
I have to quit doubting my reading of our indicators.
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02/10 We can see deterioration in the DIA and QQQ POWER30
numbers, in spite of the apparent strength in the market.
On the other hand, NASD and NYSE both have stronger POWER30
numbers. At least in part, that supports the notion that
strength lays outside the techs. Note that we had a
breakout on NYSE today. Not big, but real. The whole
complex of anxiety indicators (TRIN/TRINQ/VXN/VXO) is
edging back toward complacency. XGLD and the dollar
index were steady.
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02/09 In spite of the appearance of the three spreadsheets,
it seems to me that the BIRDSEED spreadsheet is negative.
The 1-day TRIN/TRINQ both jumped above last Thursday's
level (I see someone on Zeev's board uses a 21-day moving
average of these numbers.) The NASD techs look like we've
been in a downtrend for a while. This has confused me in
the past with regard to some stocks. The fall may be all
done before I ever notice it. VXN/VXO have fallen back and
may be due to pop up again. XOI bounced quite a bit today.
It's done that twice already this year.
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02/06 Today's turn is reflected in TRIN/TRINQ. It may or may
not continue. The charts for QQQ and NASD show a nice bounce,
but still within the limits of their current downtrends. The
volume is lower on NASD but is up on QQQ which COULD mean the
techs have finished their correction. In terms of the POWER30
numbers, keep in mind that NASD did not recover it's steep
drop a couple of days ago while NYSE bounced well past the
pre-drop level. When you couple this with the bounce in QQQ
it seems to confirm the idea that the strength is in the
stronger stocks. The bond index picked up a bit which makes
sense if fears of a rise in the interest rate have fallen.
The dollar index fell sharply and this seems to also be tied
to the interest rate idea. It would mean the dollar had been
strengthening in hope of an interest rate rise and is now
disappointed. Can you learn to internalize this relationship?
If we find that this interpretation is valid, it could be a
great help in understanding the market. McClellan doesn't
believe the bounce, but it did slow its fall. Both VXN and
VXO fell sharply which could mean that this bounce will have
some legs. XGLD gave back a lot of its early run.
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02/05 Comparing the DIA and QQQ chart may tell a story ...
"flight to quality"? The POWER30 numbers for NASD and
NYSE seem to bear out the same theme. McClellan accelerated
its fall. That's a MAJOR turn, I wish I knew how much
weight to attach to it. (The flight to quality, if that's
what it is, suggests a fairly mild downturn which is not
expected to affect the blue chips disastrously).
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02/04 Damn! This is tough. TRIN actually improved although
TRINQ reacted as expected and rose sharply. That says (I
think) that NASD is much more vulnerable than NYSE.
Confirming that line of thought, NASD's POWER30 number fell
over 2 points and is negative for the first time since
December 17th. For what it's worth (nothing), I'm going to
make a guess that 1950 will hold. If not, it looks like
1875 or so is next. Note that the NYSE POWER30 number is
still positive, but the techs look very weak. McClellen
fell very sharply. In this instance, McClellan has been
falling since January 27th and has been a leading indicator.
VXN/VXO are both rising, showing more traditional
indications. XGLD was steady.
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02/03 TRIN and TRINQ both seem to be edging up, suggesting
bearishness. The dollar index COULD BE turning down. Most
of the indices look steady, except for McClellan which is
still falling sharply. VXN/VXO are both rising suggesting
growing anxiety. XGLD was steady.
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02/02 The bond index seems to have entered a downtrend. The
dollar is stable for the moment. McClellan is in a landslide.
I was going to drop this one, but I think it's leading so
I'll hold on to it a while longer and see.
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AI
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