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Re: 3xBuBu post# 9513

Thursday, 11/08/2007 9:31:53 PM

Thursday, November 08, 2007 9:31:53 PM

Post# of 72997
Market Update 071108
http://biz.yahoo.com/mu/update.html
4:20 pm : On Thursday, it looked like it was going to be another dismal day on Wall Street with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P dropping as much as 220, 100 and 25 points, respectively. Then an impressive late day rally, led by the financial sector, propelled the major indices to pare the majority of their intraday losses.

Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Cisco's (CSCO 29.63, -3.12,) earnings report and unimpressive same-store sales spurred most of the early selling pressure.

The prepared text for Bernanke's speech noted downside risks to the economic outlook given slower business and consumer spending, and upside risks to inflation given the weaker dollar and the rise in commodity prices.

In sum, the Fed is in a bind. While it has proved willing to bend to the economic concerns, it's worried that an overshoot could come back to bite them as lower policy rates help perpetuate higher inflation.

While the market continues to believe the Fed will come to the rescue with another 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, Briefing.com sides with the read from the policy statement that policy is on hold unless the economic/inflation news provides a large surprise.

Bernanke did not give the market any revelations. Investors pushed the market lower after the speech as they were hoping to get more substance of what the Fed will do in the future.

Cisco, a Briefing.com Active Portfolio holding, reported fiscal first quarter earnings that topped expectations. The stock got hammered, though, as investors were disappointed that the company's second quarter outlook failed to meet the market's high expectations.

Cisco's earnings report and outlook is solid in Briefing.com's estimation, but the market has taken it as a sign that the tech sector is overextended. After all, the Nasdaq 100 is up roughly 20% from its Aug. 16 low to yesterday's close. Therefore, the report spurred broad-based and aggressive profit taking in the tech sector (-4.0%), which in turn caused the Nasdaq to underperform.

Separately, as expected, the same-store sales results from the retailers for the month of October were unimpressive. The International Council of Shopping Centers concluded sales were up just 1.6% versus its original forecast for 2.5% growth.

The October increase was the slowest rate of increase in twelve years and followed a 1.7% gain in September that was less than half the gain registered in September 2006.

The factors behind the sluggish results weren't surprising, as many retailers blamed the warm October temperatures and a moderation in consumer spending that stemmed from the housing market downturn, higher energy costs, and the mortgage market mess that contributed to declining levels of consumer confidence.

Outside of tech, the remaining major sectors fared fairly well with all nine finishing in the green. The utilities (+2.0%) and energy (+1.5%) finished the day with the largest gains. Financials, however, provided the support for the late-day rally as it went from being down over 2.0% to finishing up 0.4%. DJ30 -33.73 NASDAQ -52.76 SP500 -0.85 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1629/1419/3.50 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1720/1579/2.19 bln

3:30 pm : The stock market has bounced off its lows in impressive fashion, aided by the financial sector (+0.4%) leaping into the green. The Dow and S&P are closing in on the unchanged mark. The Nasdaq is off its lows, but has not recovered as much as the other indices as the tech sector (-3.7%) continues to post substantial losses.

Volume has been on the heavy side at the NYSE and Nasdaq exchanges.

After the close, 58 companies are confirmed to report, including Nvidia (NVDA 33.93, -2.17) and Qualcomm (QCOM 40.19, -1.00).DJ30 -38.53 NASDAQ -49.04 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1883/1120/2.85 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2039/1224/1.60 bln

3:00 pm : The major indices are hovering near their session lows in what is turning out to be another ugly day of trading.

Without a substantial turnaround in the financial (-2.2%) and tech (-5.0%) sectors, which together make up 36% of the S&P Index, the broader market stands to stay in negative territory.

On the commodities front, Dow Jones is reporting that BP’s CEO sees oil at $60 to $80 per barrel in the medium term. A barrel of crude for December delivery is down 1.0% to $95.38.
DJ30 -188.26 NASDAQ -89.55 SP500 -21.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2019/953/2.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2194/1063/1.45 bln

2:30 pm : The major indices are falling back toward their intraday lows as buyers fail to follow through with their recovery efforts.

21 of the 30 Dow components are in the red. IBM (IBM 105.81, -5.27) and AIG (AIG 54.86, -3.04) are the main laggards, while Exxon Mobil (XOM 88.81, +1.61) and Procter & Gamble (PG 70.62, +1.20) are providing leadership. Fellow Dow component McDonald's (MCD 59.42, +1.04) is performing well after posting better-than-expected October same-store sales. DJ30 -167.50 NASDAQ -83.66 SP500 -18.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1993/988/2.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2140/1107/1.34 bln

2:00 pm : The major indices are off their lows, but continue to post substantial losses. The S&P 500 Retailing Index (-2.2%) is a laggard following unimpressive October retailing same-store sales.

The October increase was the slowest rate of increase in twelve years and followed a 1.7% gain in September that was less than half the gain registered in September 2006. The factors behind the sluggish results weren't surprising, as many retailers blamed the warm October temperatures and a moderation in consumer spending that stemmed from the housing market downturn, higher energy costs, and the mortgage market mess that contributed to declining levels of consumer confidence.



DJ30 -130.02 NASDAQ -72.80 SP500 -13.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1960/1008/2.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2206/1031/1.19 bln

1:30 pm : The stock market is trading near its intraday lows as the heavily weighted financial (-1.6%) and tech sectors (-4.5%) continue to be under pressure. The Nasdaq Composite (-2.9%) is getting hit especially hard.

Cisco's (CSCO 29.99, -2.76) earnings report and outlook is solid in Briefing.com's estimation, but the market has taken it as a sign that the tech sector is overextended. After all, the Nasdaq 100 is up roughly 20% from its Aug. 16 low to yesterday's close. Therefore, the report spurred broad-based and aggressive profit taking in the tech sector.DJ30 -153.15 NASDAQ -79.82 SP500 -16.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2018/931/1.97 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2132/1060/984 mln

1:00 pm : Selling pressure pushes the indices lower, as the financial (-2.3%) and tech (-4.5%) sectors continue to lag. Dow Jones reports that Bernanke believes $150 billion in eventual subprime losses are 'in the ballpark.'

The declines in the tech sector are especially striking, as it has been a pillar of support during the subprime fallout. At its current levels, it is still up 16% year-to-date.

Defensive oriented investments are in favor this session.The utilities (+1.4%), telecom (flat), healthcare (+0.1%) and consumer staples (+0.4%) sectors are outperforming on a relative basis. Additionally, bonds have seen an increase in buying interest. DJ30 -167.70 NASDAQ -77.00 SP500 -17.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1804/1107/1.67 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1798/1380/874 mln

12:30 pm : The major indices are extending their declines. Selling pressure is broad-based, but there is significant weakness in the tech (-3.4%) and financial sectors (-1.5%).

Reuters reports the turmoil gripping global credit markets is the worst crisis Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann has ever seen, but he does not expect it to cause any further write-downs for his own bank. "(This) is psychologically the worst crisis that I have seen in my 30 years," Ackermann added, speaking to journalists at the Reuters Finance Summit. DJ30 -93.72 NASDAQ -51.14 SP500 -7.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1577/1292/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/1424/787 mln

12:00 pm : The major indices are posting losses at the East Coast lunch hour, with the Nasdaq underperforming due to weakness in tech stocks. Action has been choppy as the market digests Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee.

The prepared text for Bernanke's speech noted downside risks to the economic outlook given slower business and consumer spending, and upside risks to inflation given the weaker dollar and the rise in commodity prices.

In sum, the Fed is in a bind. While it has proved willing to bend to the economic concerns, it's worried that an overshoot could come back to bite them as lower policy rates help perpetuate higher inflation.

While the market continues to believe the Fed will come to the rescue with another 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, Briefing.com sides with the read from the policy statement that policy is on hold unless the economic/inflation news provides a large surprise.

In corporate news, Morgan Stanley (MS 52.95, +1.76) announced a $3.7 billion write-down, and Dow component AIG's (AIG 56.00, -1.90) earnings fell short of estimates. Retailers' same-store sales for October have been mediocre.

Cisco (CSCO 30.44, -2.31) has been a drag on tech stocks when its disappointing outlook (relative to investors' high expectations) overshadowed its better-than-expected earnings report. Other large-cap tech stocks that have had strong runs this year are also showing weakness. Apple (AAPL 181.55, -4.75), Google (GOOG 701.00, -31.94) and Oracle (ORCL 20.54, -1.56) are weighing on the broader market.

Given the lack of participation by large-cap tech stocks, it is not surprising that the tech sector (-2.7%) is the main laggard. The financial sector (-0.9%), which fell more than 5% yesterday, is also a drag. Five of the ten sectors are in the green, but the market will have a hard time making it back into positive territory without the support of the heavily weighted tech, financial and consumer discretionary sectors.DJ30 -68.85 NASDAQ -38.58 SP500 -4.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1432/1371/1.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1494/1617/645 mln

11:30 am : The major indices decline into negative territory as Bernanke continues to be quizzed. Tech continues to be the main drag, and now the financial sector (-0.3%) is a drag after slipping into the red.

Newmont Mining (NEM 56.13, +1.92), a member of Briefing.com's Active Portfolio, is performing well this morning. Credit Suisse raised its price target on NEM to $70 from $55. The increase was driven by implications from the recent spike in gold prices, and Suisse's view that the primary drivers pushing gold higher are likely to remain intact over the next several years. DJ30 -39.18 NASDAQ -28.51 SP500 -.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1271/1498/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1263/1784/528 mln

11:05 am : The major indices continue their choppy runs as Bernanke gets questioned. Bernanke said in testimony that he is not concerned about a change in Chinese currency holdings. Yesterday, reports that a Chinese official said China might pursue a plan to adjust its dollar holdings in favor of stronger currencies sparked a steep decline in the dollar.

The tech sector (-2.2%) continues to be under pressure. Some of the large-cap stocks that have had very strong runs this year are being hit this session. Apple (AAPL 181.91, -4.39), Cisco (CSCO 30.53, -2.22), Oracle (ORCL 20.57, -1.54) and Google (GOOG 708.17, -24.77) are the main laggards in the Nasdaq 100. DJ30 -0.97 NASDAQ -20.56 SP500 +3.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1313/1395/849 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1201/1781/390 mln

10:30 am : The stock market is trading in a choppy manner as Bernanke speaks. Among other statements, Bernanke said the FOMC expects growth to 'slow noticeably' in Q4 and that inflation pressure from oil may further restrain the economy. He also reiterated that the Fed will 'act as needed' on growth and inflation.

In other news, Bloomberg.com reports that Standard & Poors reduced its outlook on Morgan Stanley (MS 53.28, +2.09) to "negative" from "stable."DJ30 -9.92 NASDAQ -19.30 SP500 +2.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1249/1351/558 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1435/1464/260 mln

10:00 am : The S&P joined the Nasdaq in negative territory, before recovering to the unchanged mark. The heavily weighted tech sector (-1.9%) is a significant drag on the S&P and Nasdaq. The financial sector is only up 0.2%, but any gain is welcome following yesterday's 5.1% decline.

The energy and utilities sectors are both up 0.8%, which makes them the market leaders. Crude is up 0.8% to $97.16.DJ30 -32.11 NASDAQ -23.59 SP500 +0.84

09:45 am : Following yesterday's dismal day, the major indices open in mixed fashion. The S&P is in the green despite Morgan Stanley (MS) announcing a $3.7 billion write-down and AIG (AIG) missing its earnings estimates. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is in the red as investors are disappointed with Cisco's (CSCO) fiscal second quarter outlook.

Investors are awaiting Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee at 10:00 ET. DJ30 -2.76 NASDAQ -13.00 SP500 +1.31

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Futures continue to be mixed as investors await Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee at 10:00 ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. The major indices are still slated for a mixed opening. Data on sales of retail chains in October are mediocre. Wal-Mart (WMT) had a poor 0.7% increase, but Costco (COST) came in at a stronger than expected 9.0%.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Initial claims for the week ended November 3 came in at 317k, compared to the consensus estimate of 325k. The futures market's reaction was limited to the release.

08:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures point to a mixed opening. The Nasdaq is expected to open slightly lower following a negative reaction to Cisco’s (CSCO) future outlook. The broader market is pointing higher despite several negative developments that include Morgan Stanley (MS) announcing a $3.7 billion write-down and Dow component AIG (AIG) missing the consensus third quarter EPS estimate of $1.62 by 27 cents. Unlike Cisco, though, both of these companies faced low expectations.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5.

06:18 am : FTSE...6411.70...+26.60...+0.4%. DAX...7804.14...+4.52...+0.1%.

06:18 am : Nikkei...15771.57...-325.11...-2.0%. Hang Seng...28760.22...-948.71...-3.2%.





My posting is for my own entertainment, do your own DD before pushing your buy/call button

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