Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[marketmaven]

AMZN looks ripe for shorting- options expiration prop not sustainable IMTO

* PEG of 2.4x is 35% above peers, according to JP Morgan;
* Q1-Q3 2004 anniversaries $25 free shipping offer so growth comps in US will be challenged;
* Q4 International GMgn compression of 300bp to 17% and Super Saver shipping will cost 3.5% of revenues in Q104;
* Category expension (esp. electronics) is leading to GMgn compression;
* Third party sales concerns extend beyond just Toys-R-Us; and
* Inventory turns on a trailing 12 mo basis slipping to 17x in Q1 from 18x in Q4