Value Microcaps Motherboard

[lentinman]

Everything you need to know about housing:

Make note of the chart below. These September numbers are HORRENDOUS - and they keep getting worse. I do not believe they are factored into the economy or into homebuilder's stock prices for the simple reason that nobody knows where the bottom is.

1) Inventory: Not only added 3.2 months since last September, but incredibly added almost one full month since last month (August). That means that for every one house sold in September, two came onto the market!

2) Home sales: Not only 20% worse than last September, but incredibly 9% below last month (August)! What's worse, this is the beginning of the slow time of the year for home sales.

3) Median price: Not only 4% below last September, but incredibly 6% below last month (August)!!! You have to remember that prices are the last thing to start to cave as egotistic homeowners refuse to accept that their castle isn't special and unique. That's until reality slaps the shit out of them. I think we will look back and say that September, 2007 (today's report) was the beginning of the severe price declines in housing.

4) Prediction: I'm going to predict that the December Total Median Price will drop to around $200,000 - and that's being conservative IMO.

                              Sept     Aug   Sept07/06 
 Single Family Sales           -8.6    -4.2     -19.8 
 -------------------------------------------------------- 
 Total Median Price (thsnds) $211.7  $224.4    $220.9 
 Median Pct Change             -5.7    -1.9      -4.2 
 -------------------------------------------------------- 
 Units Available (mlns)       4.399   4.383     3.783 
 Months' Worth of Supply       10.5     9.6       7.3

Len