Do not go wild son! I just played with YOUR number (50MM) and Matin's.
Honestly, to me they are both hypothetical but I beleive Matin's are probably closer to reality than yours (at least one can assume that in his case, Matin knows more than you do ???).
The problem with yours is that it's based on nothing whatsoever but your frustration and anger.
The problem with Matin's is it doesn't tell us what are the NA's numbers and what are the BD's (knowing that BD's is most likely much less relevant to our interest for verifyability reasons).