Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>> Dew, you didn't read My posts all the way down (see #907) <<

isolution: Trust me, I read every word of every one of your posts!

I do not think a local formulation of CA4P is necessarily the answer to the drug’s toxicity. It is far from assured that a satisfactory local formulation can be found to treat AMD and other eye diseases. Moreover, even if such a formulation of CA4P can be found, it’s unlikely that such a product could reach the market until 2008-2009. Hence the present value of such a product on a risk-adjusted basis has to be discounted rather substantially.

>> I still don't understand why you've shortened [sold] OX[GN] <<

To put it as simply as possible: QTc-prolongation is a drug-killer. A case in point is Pfizer’s Geodon for schizophrenia.

If not for QTc-prolongation which is relatively modest in objective terms, Geodon could have been a bona fide blockbuster and rivaled LLY’s Zyprexa, which has annual sales of more than $4B. Instead, Geodon has sales of only $400M (less than 10% of Zyprexa’s sales) and has mostly been relegated to third-line and fourth-line status (i.e. it is used after patients fail on Zyprexa and one or more other drugs such as JNJ’s Risperdal, AZN’s Seroquel, or BMY’s Abilify). This is the kind of fate I foresee for CA4P in ophthalmology. Regards, Dew