Sons And Daughters Of BBCMF Metals/Silver,Gold,Precious Metals companies/Research.

[mick]

JULY 13 2007 9:30AM - The PMs seem "frozen in the headlights" today, unsure of their fate. It all seems to be up to the dollar at this point, so today I'm going to dwell a bit on the possibilities. To start things off, here is some reader mail and my response:



Q: [...] I'm very interested by your last analysis about the dollar. I'm also quite sure that this new downtrend of the dollar will trigger the new bullish trend on the PM. You say: "a projection of the downtrend channel established in November 2005 indicates that support might only be found down in the 74-75 area on the dollar index". Could you say a little bit more, I don't see it on the charts?



A: I am projecting out about 6 months for the dollar to reach the bottom of the channel (actually more like a divided highway at this point) somewhere between 74-75 (see chart). I also have a precise bottom target of 73.61 which could be reached by May-June 2008, probably after a dollar rally of 7-8 points between now and then (perhaps from a low of 76 or 77 in the next few weeks?). Obviously this scenario would imply the powers that be will succeed in engineering a soft landing. On the other hand, the dollar could rally from here all the way up to 84-85 and still keep the downtrend intact.



http://www.silveraxis.com/