SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[CaribbeanJim]

Investor's are being conditioned to become stubbornly bullish as this pig continues to fly to the moon. Behaviorial science is very interesting. Make a market go up 5 years straight like 1995-2000 and 2003-2008 and the small investor will turn from stubbornly bearish to stubbornly bullish. Then... rip the rug out so fast that the small investor is like a deer in the headlights. They won't even consider shorting because they think the bottom is near and they missed the opportunity, BUT the institutionals know the bottom is nowhere near so they create a series of sucker rallies or let er rip like the parabolic 18-month down of the Great Depression.

My guess is the US market will collapse in 2008 and it will be a Great Depression type parabolic down. Between now and then, the market will condition the small investor to be stubbornly bullish.